:quality(82)/2107838830124092abb733c06131136b "Bitcoin faces upcoming U.S. vote and rate hikes")
Bitcoin and global cryptocurrency markets face a heavy convergence of political and macroeconomic catalysts this week, entering the period recovering from a steep sell-off. es.beincrypto.com reported that a record 6.3 billion dollar hack on Binance dragged Bitcoin down to a six-week low on Friday, setting a volatile backdrop as United States voters prepare to elect a new Congress, three international central banks weigh interest rate hikes, and the October U.S. employment report arrives.
The global crypto market capitalization stabilizes around 2.68 trillion dollars, according to binance.com, while investors gauge whether incoming economic data will trigger further monetary tightening. Higher interest rates typically make cash and government bonds more attractive, pulling non-yielding capital away from digital assets like Bitcoin.
Congressional Elections and Bitcoin Price Targets
American voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, to decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. According to es.beincrypto.com, a Bloomberg survey of 301 investors showed that 29% expected Bitcoin to surpass 100,000 dollars by the end of the year if Republicans capture control of Congress, while only 8% anticipated that threshold under a Democratic victory. Furthermore, 71% of respondents predicted that Bitcoin would finish 2026 lower if Democrats retain control, though Bloomberg did not weight the optional survey results.
3 midterms. 3 green years for BTC.+25%, +45%, +92% twelve months after the vote.However, the path wasn’t smooth. In 2014 and 2018, BTC was down 31% and 46% three months in.Year three of a presidential term has historically been the best for stocks: S&P median +18.9%, up 17… https://t.co/ac2N52V1aq pic.twitter.com/nb2Gcq9HKM
Historical midterm data tracked by DWF Labs reveals mixed patterns for the digital asset. Bitcoin climbed 25%, 45%, and 92% in the twelve months following the 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections. However, shorter-term performance showed sharp initial pullbacks, with Bitcoin trading 31% lower three months after the 2014 vote and 46% lower three months after the 2018 vote.
Central Bank Rate Decisions Across Three Continents
Alongside the U.S. elections, three foreign central banks deliver critical monetary policy decisions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, with economists widely expecting the central bank to lift its cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85% to combat persistent inflation, as noted by Bloomberg.
Sweden’s Riksbank follows on Wednesday, where Goldman Sachs and ING both project a quarter-point rate increase to 2.00%. On Thursday, the Bank of England delivers its decision. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect a quarter-point hike to 4.0% from 3.75%, which would mark the central bank’s first rate increase since August 2023.
Rising energy costs pushed UK inflation to 3.5% in the twelve months leading to September, exceeding the Bank of England’s 3.0% forecast. Despite the tighter policy trajectory, analysts suggest the central bank may push back against aggressive market pricing for subsequent hikes.
“Though we do not expect a clear indication from the Committee on how many hikes they plan, it is possible that the meeting minutes or Bailey … will signal that Bank Rate is unlikely to reach the level anticipated by financial markets,” Alexander Harvey, UK economist at Oxford Economics, told Reuters.
These international moves extend a global tightening cycle.
October Employment Data and Manufacturing Surveys
Las previsiones sitúan el índice manufacturero del lunes en 54.7, por encima de 54.5 en septiembre.
The primary economic focus centers on Friday’s October employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Bitcoin historically reacts swiftly to payroll surprises. When August nonfarm payrolls nearly tripled expectations, the cryptocurrency dropped 1.8% within minutes of the release. Markets are closely monitoring these indicators to gauge the path of U.S. monetary policy, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 73.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on December 9.
Frequently Asked Questions
What economic probability is currently priced in for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting?
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 73.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during its meeting on December 9, 2026.
How much did UK inflation reach ahead of the Bank of England rate decision?
Rising energy costs drove UK inflation to 3.5% in the twelve months leading to September, exceeding the Bank of England’s forecast of 3.0%.
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