The Year 2025: Peak, Decline, and a Dark turn for French Bitcoiners
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With all due respect to those who announce the “death of cycles”, the year 2025 will indeed have been that of the peak and the decline, confirming that Bitcoin remains for the moment more or less consistent with the four-year pattern to which it has accustomed us. So certainly,we are far from the amplitudes of the past – both upward and downward – and if the ATH (All-Time High) has remained well below the 350,000 dollars announced by the most fanciful models. We can thus legitimately hope that the decline will also be less extreme than those of previous cycles.[1]
Morality for the “halving” cycle: until proven otherwise, it is still relevant. This does not mean that it will always exist,but it puts us in a better position for the future. For a convinced bitcoiner,expecting the worst does not present a risk since it is not a question of selling,but of buying or doing nothing while waiting for the return of cryptographic spring.
Dark year in France
for French bitcoiners, this year 2025 was, in many respects, a dark year.We have temporarily escaped a tax on latent capital with double taxation[2] as well as an amendment which would have required bitcoin holders to declare the market value of thier assets[3]. However, we have not escaped an increase in the tax on capital gains from the sale of bitcoins, although it is already one of the highest in Europe and weighs heavily on the attractiveness of the territory. But the worst is not there.
The worst are the physical and targeted attacks to which certain holders of digital assets or their families have been victims: extortion, kidnapping, torture in the most extreme cases. In France, the possession of digital assets has become a vector of personal insecurity.
Surveillance as a vector of risk
But fortunately, the State protects us (or at least it claims to): The year 2025 was that of the full and complete application of the Travel Rule (since December 2024) which requires the systematic exchange of facts from users of “crypto” platforms. Added to this was the transposition of the European directive DAC8 into the tax code (in force from january 1, 2026), increasing opportunities for hackers.
Because the year 2025 was also the theater of numerous data leaks massive: the Ministry of the Interior, three Regional Health Agencies, Bouygues Telecom, France Travail, or even the French shooting Federation… These centralized databases, soon supplemented by ultra-precise information on the holders of digital assets, have become the new prospecting catalogs for cybercrime and organized crime[4].
Not Bitcoin ?
Far from the media agitation, the year 2025 marked a decisive stage in the technical maturity of Bitcoin, structured around three pillars: performance, security and decentralizati
Bitcoin and lightning Network Developments in 2025: A Year in Review
As 2025 draws to a close, the Bitcoin and Lightning Network ecosystems have seen significant advancements focused on privacy, scalability, and decentralization. This review highlights key developments throughout the year.
Bitcoin Adoption and Regulatory Landscape:
2025 witnessed continued institutional adoption of Bitcoin, most notably through the proliferation of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).[1] this influx of institutional investment may contribute to reduced volatility, possibly at the expense of the explosive growth seen in previous years. Regulatory developments in France included adjustments to capital gains tax, with a flat tax rate applied to gains exceeding €5000.[3] Though, selling Bitcoin to cover capital gains tax does not exempt individuals from the flat tax.[2]
Privacy Enhancements:
A major theme of 2025 was bolstering privacy within the Bitcoin ecosystem. innovations like DahLIAS (Interactive Aggregate Signatures) and Garbled Locks offer more discreet methods for managing complex off-chain transactions by obscuring the nature of the expense. Furthermore, the potential of Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKPs) is gaining recognition as a crucial tool for enhancing privacy and regulatory compliance.Implementing ZKPs could reduce the need for third-party storage of sensitive data, mitigating risks associated with central server vulnerabilities and mass surveillance.[4] The concern remains that current surveillance architectures could be exploited by illiberal governments for social control.
Lightning Network Scalability and Security:
The Lightning Network continued to mature, addressing challenges related to scalability and security. Simulations validated new mechanisms for retention fees and upfront fees, designed to prevent channel jamming attacks – a form of denial-of-service targeting the network.
Decentralization and MEV Mitigation:
Efforts to combat centralization also gained momentum. The MEVpool proposal lays the groundwork for a decentralized block market. This is a critical step in preventing Miner Extractable Value (MEV) from compromising network neutrality and fostering excessive concentration of power among miners.A decentralized block market aims to distribute the benefits of MEV more equitably and reduce the potential for manipulation.
May 2026 be a year of increased sovereignty and technical resilience.
Happy New Year 2026!
[1] With the massive institutionalization of bitcoin, notably via ETFs, we can perhaps hope for a reduction in volatility at the cost of less explosive growth.
[2] Anyone who sells to pay capital tax is not exempt from flat tax.
[3] From €5000 according to this amendment.
[4] The chronic insecurity of central servers, aggravated by regulations based on mass surveillance, is however not unavoidable. Technical devices such as the systematization of Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP), or “zero knowledge disclosure proof” could actually make it possible to respond to part of the problem by avoiding the massive storage of sensitive data with third parties, whether private or institutional, while guaranteeing regulatory compliance. It becomes imperative to act in this direction: maintaining such a surveillance architecture is a political time bomb. Sooner or later,in France or elsewhere in Europe,this legislative and technical arsenal will end up falling into the hands of an illiberal government,brought to power by an exasperated population,then offering unprecedented tools of social control to the arbitrary.
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