Bitcoin Stalls Between $60,000 and $70,000: What Glassnode Data Reveals About a Potential Recovery
Bitcoin is currently trapped in a tight trading range between $60,000 and $70,000, lacking the necessary catalyst to trigger a decisive breakout. While the market searches for direction, on-chain data from Glassnode suggests that the path to a sustained recovery depends on resolving a significant supply overhang and a shift in investor profitability.
The Supply Overhang: A Reminder of 2022
A primary headwind for Bitcoin is the “Total Supply in Loss” metric, which tracks the volume of BTC last moved at prices higher than the current market value. According to Glassnode’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA), approximately 8.4 million BTC are currently held at a loss.
This level of supply overhang mirrors market conditions from mid-2022. Historically, resolving a deficit of this scale requires a meaningful redistribution of coins from holders realizing losses to new buyers entering at lower prices before the market can stabilize.
Long-Term Holder Pressure and the Path to Stability
The market is also grappling with selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs). Since November, the 30-day SMA of LTH realized losses has climbed steadily, reaching roughly $200 million per day.
While this realization of loss is a necessary part of a market reset, Glassnode analysts indicate that a sustainable recovery is unlikely until this daily selling pressure drops below $25 million.
The 50% Threshold: Short-Term Holder Profitability
For a sustained price recovery to take hold, a flip in short-term holder (STH) profitability is a critical precondition. Short-term holders—defined as addresses that purchased their tokens within the last 155 days—currently have a “Supply in Profit” metric below 50%.
This metric measures the percentage of the BTC supply held at a net unrealized gain. As STHs typically represent the more speculative side of the market, their lack of profitability generally suppresses demand-side risk appetite. Historically, market confidence doesn’t return until this profitability figure climbs back above the 50% mark.
Mixed Signals in Demand and Institutional Activity
Recent data shows a complex picture of demand:
- Exchange Volume: Coinbase spot volume data has turned marginally positive on a 30-day basis, suggesting buyers are starting to absorb supply after a period of heavy selling. However, this demand remains cautious rather than conviction-driven.
- Corporate Shifts: Institutional participation is narrowing. Marathon Digital recently reduced its exposure by selling approximately 15,000 BTC.
- Consistent Buyers: MicroStrategy remains one of the few consistent large-scale buyers, whereas the treasury did not add to its holdings last week.
- Price Range: BTC is consolidating between $60,000 and $70,000.
- Supply Hurdle: 8.4 million BTC are held at a loss, creating a supply overhang similar to 2022.
- Recovery Trigger: Sustainable growth likely requires STH profitability to exceed 50% and LTH daily losses to drop below $25 million.
- Institutional Trend: Corporate activity is mixed, with some firms reducing exposure while others remain stagnant.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the “Total Supply in Loss” metric?
It is an on-chain metric that tracks the volume of Bitcoin last moved at prices above the current market level, indicating how many coins are currently “underwater.”
Who are Short-Term Holders (STHs)?
STHs are investors who have held their Bitcoin for 155 days or less. They are often viewed as the more volatile or “weak-minded” segment of the market compared to long-term holders.
Why does STH profitability matter for the price?
When more than 50% of STH supply is in profit, it typically signals a return of risk appetite and increased demand, which can act as a precursor to a sustained price rally.
Looking Ahead
Bitcoin’s current stagnation is a battle between existing supply overhangs and cautious new demand. Until the market clears the 8.4 million BTC held at a loss and short-term holders return to profitability, the asset is likely to remain within its current narrow range. Investors should watch for a decline in long-term holder selling pressure as the first sign of a genuine trend reversal.