Boise State’s NCAA Tournament Hopes Hang in the Balance

The Boise State men’s basketball team is fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth, having won four straight Mountain West Conference games to improve its resume. Following an 86-77 victory over San Diego State on Tuesday, the Broncos are tied with Nevada and UNLV for fifth place in the MWC standings at 11-8. Colorado State can join the tie with a win over New Mexico on Wednesday.

The top four teams in the MWC receive a first-round bye in next week’s tournament. Boise State’s most realistic path to the NCAA Tournament is winning the MWC Tournament championship. The Broncos (19-11, 11-8) conclude the regular season on Saturday at Colorado State (19-10, 10-8).

Broncos’ At-Large Bid Chances

As of Wednesday morning, Boise State’s advanced metrics are not strong enough for at-large consideration. Here’s a glance at key metrics:

• NCAA NET Ranking: No. 58
• KenPom: No. 57
• Torvik: No. 54

For comparison, here are the metrics for teams currently projected to be in the NCAA Tournament:

• Santa Clara
  • NCAA NET Ranking: No. 41
  • KenPom: No. 39
  • Torvik: No. 31
• Ohio State
  • NCAA NET Ranking: No. 34
  • KenPom: No. 34
  • Torvik: No. 28
• New Mexico
  • NCAA NET Ranking: No. 44
  • KenPom: No. 46
  • Torvik: No. 47
• VCU
  • NCAA NET Ranking: No. 46
  • KenPom: No. 47
  • Torvik: No. 56

The Broncos require to improve their standing in these metrics by at least 10 spots to be considered for an at-large bid.

Key Wins and Quadrant Breakdown

Boise State has two notable wins against Saint Mary’s (NET Ranking No. 21) and New Mexico (No. 44). However, they have a 2-6 record in Quad 1 games. Their overall record in Quad 1 and 2 games is 7-9, which is comparable to Ohio State (8-11) and VCU (5-7), but behind Santa Clara (8-6) and New Mexico (8-6).

Here’s how Quad 1 victories are defined:

• Home: 1-30
• Neutral: 1-50
• Road: 1-75

Path Forward

Saturday’s game against Colorado State (NET No. 88) is likely a Quad 2 opportunity. However, the MWC Tournament could provide multiple Quad 1 opportunities against teams like Utah State (No. 28), New Mexico and San Diego State (No. 47).

To have a chance at an at-large bid, Boise State must win at Colorado State and reach the MWC Tournament championship game with three victories at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Last season, Boise State reached the MWC title game but was among the first four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament. They finished the season 24-10 with a NET Ranking of No. 44.

Aztecs Fall to Broncos

Reese Dixon-Waters led San Diego State (19-10, 13-6) with 23 points in Tuesday’s loss at Boise State. The Aztecs have lost four of their last five games and are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. Drew Fielder paced Boise State with a career-high 33 points.