Could Tom Aspinall’s Jiu-Jitsu Overcome Alexander Volkov’s Wrestling?

The heavyweight clash between Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov at UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall on March 19, 2022, remains one of the most talked-about bouts in recent MMA history. Aspinall’s first-round submission victory via straight armbar from half guard showcased his grappling prowess, but the question lingers: Could his Jiu-Jitsu truly neutralize Volkov’s wrestling if the fight had gone to the ground?

The Fight That Sparked the Debate

Aspinall dominated the striking early, landing 29 of 43 significant strikes (67% accuracy) compared to Volkov’s 13 of 23 (56%). His precision was particularly evident in head strikes, where he connected at a 55% clip—nearly 10% higher than Volkov’s 46%. Still, the fight ended abruptly when Aspinall secured the armbar, leaving fans to wonder how Volkov’s wrestling might have fared if the bout had progressed.

Striking Breakdown: Aspinall’s Edge

• Head Strikes: Aspinall landed 16 of 30 (53%) to Volkov’s 6 of 16 (38%).
• Body Strikes: Aspinall connected 8 of 8 (100%) in clinch positions, while Volkov managed just 1 of 1 (100%) but with far fewer attempts.
• Leg Kicks: Aspinall’s 5 of 5 (100%) leg strikes underscored his diverse offensive arsenal.

Volkov’s wrestling pedigree, however, remains a critical factor. While he failed to secure a takedown in this fight, his ability to control opponents in the clinch and dictate positioning has been a hallmark of his career. Against Aspinall, he spent 1:54 in control time during the first round—nearly the entire duration of the bout before the submission.

Jiu-Jitsu vs. Wrestling: The Tactical Showdown

Aspinall’s submission victory highlighted his ability to transition seamlessly from striking to grappling. The straight armbar from half guard was a testament to his technical precision, but Volkov’s wrestling could have posed a different challenge. Wrestling in MMA isn’t just about takedowns; it’s about positional dominance, chain wrestling, and the ability to scramble out of submissions.

Key Factors in a Grappling Exchange

• Takedown Defense: Aspinall’s ability to sprawl and counter Volkov’s attempts would be crucial. In their fight, Volkov didn’t land a takedown, but his clinch work kept Aspinall engaged.
• Submission Threats: Aspinall’s Jiu-Jitsu is dangerous, but Volkov’s experience in defending submissions (he’s only been submitted once in his UFC career) could have played a role.
• Positional Control: Volkov’s strength and wrestling base might have allowed him to reverse positions or escape Aspinall’s guard, especially if the fight went to the ground.

What the Stats Reveal

The official UFC stats from their bout provide insight into how the fight unfolded:

• Aspinall landed 67% of his significant strikes, compared to Volkov’s 56%.
• Volkov’s striking was more leg-focused (27% of his landed strikes), while Aspinall prioritized the head (55%).
• Neither fighter attempted a takedown, but Volkov’s clinch control (1:54) suggests he was working for positional dominance.

These numbers underscore Aspinall’s striking superiority but leave the grappling question open. Volkov’s wrestling, while not directly tested in this fight, remains a formidable tool in his arsenal.

Expert Opinions: Who Has the Edge?

In a recent interview, Aspinall himself weighed in on Volkov’s capabilities, stating, “I actually thought that Volkov won the fight against Gane, to be honest. I think Volkov is in really good form right now.” While this comment refers to Volkov’s bout against Ciryl Gane, it reflects Aspinall’s respect for Volkov’s overall skill set.

Aspinall’s confidence in Volkov’s abilities suggests he recognizes the Russian’s wrestling as a legitimate threat. However, his own submission victory over Volkov proves that Jiu-Jitsu can be a decisive factor in such matchups.

FAQ: Addressing the Big Questions

Could Aspinall’s Jiu-Jitsu Beat Volkov’s Wrestling?

Aspinall’s submission victory over Volkov demonstrates that his Jiu-Jitsu is elite. However, wrestling in MMA is about more than just takedowns—it’s about control, scrambles, and positional dominance. Volkov’s ability to dictate where the fight goes could have been a deciding factor if the bout had lasted longer.

What Would Have Happened If Volkov Had Taken Aspinall Down?

Volkov’s ground-and-pound and positional control are strengths. If he had secured a takedown, he might have been able to wear Aspinall down or create openings for strikes. However, Aspinall’s submission threats would have kept Volkov cautious.

Has Volkov Improved His Grappling Since Their Fight?

Volkov has continued to evolve his game, with recent performances showing improved clinch work and defensive grappling. His ability to avoid submissions in his UFC career (only one submission loss) suggests he’s a tough out on the ground.

Key Takeaways

• Aspinall’s striking and Jiu-Jitsu were dominant in their 2022 bout, but the fight ended before Volkov’s wrestling could be fully tested.
• Volkov’s clinch control and positional dominance are key strengths that could challenge Aspinall in a grappling exchange.
• Aspinall’s submission victory proves his Jiu-Jitsu is elite, but Volkov’s wrestling and experience make him a dangerous opponent on the ground.
• The hypothetical rematch would likely hinge on who dictates the fight’s pace—whether Aspinall can retain it standing or if Volkov can impose his wrestling.

The Bottom Line

Tom Aspinall’s Jiu-Jitsu is a proven weapon, as evidenced by his first-round submission of Alexander Volkov. However, Volkov’s wrestling and positional control present a unique challenge that could have altered the outcome if the fight had gone to the ground. While Aspinall holds the edge in grappling, Volkov’s ability to dictate positioning and avoid submissions makes this a fascinating “what-if” scenario.

For now, fans can only speculate—but one thing is clear: any future rematch would be must-watch MMA.