Coinbase ($COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, recorded a net loss of $667 million (approximately KRW 963.2 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October to December). As a result of reflecting large-scale valuation losses on cryptocurrency assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and strategic investment portfolios, performance returned to the red for the first time in two years despite transaction growth at the highest level ever.
Coinbase announced in a shareholder letter that it recorded a net loss of $667 million (approximately KRW 963.2 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is a reversal from the $1.3 billion (approximately 1.8883 trillion won) surplus in the same period in 2024, and was significantly below the expectations of Wall Street analysts. Although the company emphasized that this loss was centered on ‘non-cash valuation losses’ that are not accompanied by cash outflows, the market is assessing that asset portfolio risks have been highlighted again.
Highest transaction growth ever… The numbers were good, but the portfolio was holding back.
Table of Contents
- Highest transaction growth ever… The numbers were good, but the portfolio was holding back.
- ‘Valuation loss’ of $718 million due to falling Bitcoin price
- Hyperliquid, $2.6 trillion derivative transaction… Coinbase 2x
- Incorporation into S&P 500, MiCA approval, end of SEC lawsuit… ‘Busy 2025’
- Controversy over security and customer protection still persists… The idea of an ‘exchange that trades everything’
- ◆ ‘Full-stack investment roadmap’ completed in 7 steps, from spot to derivatives, DeFi, and macro.
- ◆ ‘Investors who know the structure’, not speculation, survive.
Looking at operational indicators alone, 2025 was the ‘best year’ for Coinbase. Total trading volume was $5.2 trillion (approximately KRW 7.529 trillion), a 156% increase over the previous year, and the trading share in the global cryptocurrency spot and futures market also doubled from the previous year to 6.4%. Subscription and service sector sales also reached a record high.
Coinbase announced in its shareholder letter that the number of subscribers to its paid membership service ‘Coinbase One’ has approached 1 million. The number of product lines generating more than $100 million (approximately KRW 144.5 billion) in annual sales has increased to 12. The explanation is that the strategy to reduce dependence on spot transaction fees and diversify the profit structure through subscription/service, derivatives, and infrastructure businesses is producing some results.
However, the fourth quarter financial statements were cold. Total sales in the fourth quarter were $1.78 billion (approximately KRW 2.5734 trillion), down 21.6% from the same period last year and below the market consensus (approximately $1.83 billion, approximately KRW 2.6438 trillion). Transaction fee sales, a core revenue source, amounted to $983 million (approximately KRW 1.4205 trillion), down 36% from the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was only $0.66 (approximately KRW 954), falling below the bottom of analysts’ forecasts of $0.86 to $0.96.
‘Valuation loss’ of $718 million due to falling Bitcoin price
The company pointed to losses in the valuation of its cryptocurrency investment portfolio as the primary cause of losses under U.S. accounting standards (GAAP) this quarter. According to a Coinbase report, unrealized valuation losses of $718 million (approximately KRW 1.0386 trillion) occurred in cryptocurrency investments, including Bitcoin and major altcoins, in the fourth quarter. Although this is not a cash outflow from the actual sale, it is reflected in the income statement as the accounting asset value has decreased, increasing the net loss.
Additional shocks came in the strategic investment sector. Coinbase reflected a loss of $395 million (approximately KRW 570.6 billion) in strategic investments in the fourth quarter, which was reportedly largely influenced by valuation losses on shares of stablecoin USDC issuer Circle. According to the company’s explanation, the value of Circle-related investments decreased by approximately 40% on a quarterly basis.
Nevertheless, Coinbase announced that it held $11.3 billion (approximately KRW 16.3262 trillion) in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of the year. The message is that despite the large valuation loss, the company still has a ‘thick cushion’ in terms of short-term liquidity and operating funds.
Hyperliquid, $2.6 trillion derivative transaction… Coinbase 2x
Coinbase’s mixed performance is also linked to intensifying competition. According to Artemis, an on-chain and transaction data analyst, the decentralized derivatives platform ‘Hyperliquid’ recorded trading volume of $2.6 trillion (approximately KRW 3.7565 trillion) during the recent analysis period. It is almost twice the Coinbase trading volume of $1.4 trillion (about 203 trillion won) during the same period.
The temperature difference is also clear in the market evaluation. According to Artemis statistics, Hyperliquid token price has risen 31.7% this year, while Coinbase stock price has fallen 27% over the same period. This is interpreted as a signal that growth expectations are conflicting between the spot-centered regulated exchange model and the on-chain derivatives-centered DeFi platform.
Incorporation into S&P 500, MiCA approval, end of SEC lawsuit… ‘Busy 2025’
Regardless of performance, 2025 was also the year that Coinbase was incorporated deeper into the traditional financial and regulatory framework. Coinbase was incorporated into the S&P 500, the representative U.S. stock index, last year, and secured approval to legally provide services throughout the region in accordance with the European Union’s (EU) new cryptocurrency regulation, MiCA. Major mergers and acquisitions, including the acquisition of derivatives exchange Deribit, were also completed.
Progress has also been made in terms of regulatory risk. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) withdrew some of the lawsuits it had filed against Coinbase, freeing the company from much of the long-standing legal uncertainty. So far, the lawsuit with the SEC has been a burden on Coinbase’s stock price and business expansion.
Controversy over security and customer protection still persists… The idea of an ‘exchange that trades everything’
However, not all evaluations are favorable. Security researcher Taylor Monahan pointed out that at least $350 million (approximately KRW 505.7 billion) of losses suffered by Coinbase users in 2025 could have been fully prevented, and criticized Coinbase’s user protection system as still insufficient. It is argued that the speed of improvement in phishing/fraud, wallet security, and customer support processes is not keeping up with the market growth rate.
In response, Coinbase is once again emphasizing a growth strategy that does not rely solely on spot transactions. The company defined the platform it is building as an ‘everything exchange’ and presented a blueprint to expand into various asset classes such as stocks and prediction markets as well as cryptocurrency derivatives. Recently, we joined hands with Kalshi, which handles event and result-based products, to support various ‘event contract’ markets.
The large valuation loss in the fourth quarter shows that Coinbase is still highly exposed to cryptocurrency price volatility. However, how quickly the strategy to expand the business portfolio to derivatives, subscriptions, and prediction markets will lead to fundamental improvement is expected to become clearer in the next few quarters’ performance. While the spot fee-centered exchange model is stagnating, how much market share on-chain derivatives and decentralized trading infrastructure will take is also becoming a key variable in assessing Coinbase’s mid- to long-term competitiveness.
💡 “From the era of spot exchanges to the era of ‘investors who trade everything’”
Like Coinbase’s performance, the market’s report cards are now divided based on how it achieves **portfolio structure, risk management, and business diversification** rather than simple trading volume. Exchanges that remain in the spot fee model are showing limitations in growth, and players expanding into on-chain derivatives, subscriptions/services, and infrastructure are attracting attention.
The flow is the same for investors.
Break away from simple buying and selling:
– Which asset structure increases risk,
– Where opportunities arise from derivatives, DeFi, and on-chain data;
– How macro cycles and regulatory changes shake up profit structures
Only those who can read will be the winners of the next cycle.
TokenPost Academy, created by TokenPost, Korea’s No. 1 blockchain media, is a 7-step masterclass designed to condense these market changes into **step-by-step curriculum**, allowing everyone from novice investors to professional traders to learn through one roadmap.
◆ ‘Full-stack investment roadmap’ completed in 7 steps, from spot to derivatives, DeFi, and macro.
🟢 Stage 1: The Foundation
From core asset structures such as Bitcoin and stablecoins, cold wallet and hot wallet security, deposits, withdrawals, and taxes.
Like the Coinbase user security controversy, basic security is a ‘survival skill’ that must be checked before profitability.
🔵 Step 2: The Analyst (Valuation and Analysis)
In an era like Coinbase, where asset valuation losses can affect performance, individual investors must also be able to dissect **tokenomics and on-chain data**.
- Tokenomics analysis: Check ‘dumping risk’ in advance through market capitalization, inflation, and unlocked volume.
- On-chain indicators: Determine high and low points based on data using MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, HODL Waves
Instead of flashy marketing, it fosters the power to self-verify, “Is the structure of this project sound?”
🟡 Step 3: The Strategist (Investment Strategy and Portfolio)
Just as the report card differs depending on the portfolio composition like Coinbase, individuals must also design **cash, spot, and growth asset proportions**.
- Asset Allocation in an Inflationary Era
- DCA (accumulation) strategy and long-term portfolio construction
- Balancing cash, debt, and investments
It sets standards for ‘what and how much to carry’.
🟠 Step 4: The Trader (Technical Analysis and Trading)
We cover **techniques for reading charts and controlling risk** in highly competitive markets ranging from on-chain derivatives, regulated exchanges, and DeFi.
- Log charts, key trend lines, support/resistance, candle patterns
- Practical ordering strategies such as limit price, market price, and stop order
This is not a simple feeling, but a step toward creating a reproducible trading system.
🟣 Step 5: The DeFi User (Decentralized Finance)
Just as Coinbase is expanding into the derivatives and prediction markets by promoting ‘Everything Exchange’, investors must also understand the **DeFi structure** to keep up with the market transition.
- DEX structure (order book vs. AMM) and liquidity pool/interest farming
- Impermanent Loss Calculation and Avoidance Strategy
- Understanding lending/borrowing, LTV/liquidation structures
Rather than simply looking at deposit yields, it develops an eye to dissect “Where does profit come from (Real Yield)?”
🔴 Step 6: The Professional (Futures/Options – Advanced)
In a situation where derivatives have become a core market axis, such as Coinbase and Hyperliquid, leverage and hedging strategies are no longer optional but ‘required knowledge.’
- Futures: Funding fee, crossover/isolation margin, stop loss/position size design
- Options: From call and put basics to covered calls, protective puts, and spread strategies.
However, the academy provides step-by-step guidance to first learn fundamentals, spot and risk management before entering futures and options.
⚫ Step 7: The Macro Master
Events such as Coinbase’s valuation loss, regulatory changes, and inclusion in the S&P500 must ultimately be read above **macro cycles and liquidity flows**.
- Correlation between global liquidity and crypto market capitalization
- Bitcoin Halving and Reviving Past Cycles
- Professional Portfolio Update Case Study
We aim to provide the perspective of the top 1% who read “Which sectors are leading this cycle?”
◆ ‘Investors who know the structure’, not speculation, survive.
The Coinbase example is telling.
– Even if trading volume increases, if the portfolio structure is structured incorrectly, you will incur a deficit.
– Changes in regulation, derivatives, and on-chain infrastructure completely change performance and valuation.
The answer is the same for individual investors.
Systematic learning that leads to **Security → Understanding underlying assets → On-chain and tokenomics analysis → DeFi and derivatives → Macro** is the only weapon to protect and grow your account in the next phase of volatility.
Token Post Academy provides all of these courses as one curriculum.
Apply for TokenPost Academy classes
curriculum: 7-step masterclass from basics to on-chain, DeFi, futures options, and macro
boon: Free event for first month in progress!
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🔎 Market Interpretation
• Coinbase posted a net loss of $667 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, returning to the red for the first time in two years. Most of the losses came from non-cash valuation losses due to the decline in the value of Bitcoin, altcoins and strategic investments (especially Circle shares).
• On the sales side, despite ‘record’ growth, including total trading volume of $5.2 trillion and market share of 6.4% in 2025, fourth quarter revenue ($1.78 billion) and adjusted EPS both missed Wall Street consensus.
• The derivative trading volume of Hyper Liquid, an on-chain derivatives DEX (USD 2.6 trillion), is approximately twice that of Coinbase (USD 1.4 trillion) during the same period, raising expectations for growth in the DeFi derivatives platform compared to the regulated central exchange (CEX) model.
• In terms of regulation and governance, incorporation into the institutional system is progressing, such as inclusion in the S&P 500, EU MiCA approval, and partial termination of SEC litigation, and the ‘regulatory risk premium’ is decreasing, but business model competition is shifting to a key variable.
💡Strategy Points
• From an investment perspective, concerns about short-term cash flow deterioration are limited as this loss is largely a ‘non-cash valuation loss’, but it reaffirms the risk that Coinbase is still strongly leveraged against cryptocurrency price volatility.
• Coinbase is diversifying its revenue sources into subscriptions/services (Coinbase One), derivatives, infrastructure business, prediction markets/event contracts (Kalshi partnership), etc. to reduce dependence on spot fees, and the speed of this portfolio conversion is key to future valuation reevaluation.
• In the competitive landscape, the structural confrontation between regulatory compliance CEX vs. on-chain derivative DEX (Hyper Liquid) is intensifying. In the US and EU, where regulatory clarity is high, Coinbase’s institutional status can be a shield, but if a significant portion of global liquidity moves to DeFi derivatives, protecting market share becomes a challenge.
• Security and customer protection issues (pointing out preventable losses of $350 million) may have a direct impact on future evaluations by regulators and institutional investors, and may become a mid- to long-term growth constraint beyond simple ‘reputation risk’. An important monitoring point is whether security and CS investments are strengthened.
• In the short term, the price path of Bitcoin and major coins and the activity of derivative transactions determine performance volatility, and in the medium term, the execution of the ‘Everything Exchange’ strategy and changes in the regulatory environment (whether additional authorization or strengthening of regulations) are likely to determine the direction of the stock price.
📘 Glossary of terms
• Non-cash impairment / unrealized loss: Rather than actually selling the asset and cash out, it is recognized as an accounting loss due to a decline in the fair value on the books. Most of Coinbase’s current deficit came from this item.
• GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles): U.S. GAAP. It specifies how to reflect cryptocurrency valuation losses and changes in the value of investment assets, and is the standard for calculating a company’s ‘official’ performance (net profit/net loss).
• Trading fee revenue: Fee revenue received by the exchange from brokering spot and derivatives transactions. It has traditionally been key to Coinbase’s performance, but it is now reducing its reliance on it.
• Subscription & services: An item that combines recurring revenue sources such as Coinbase One (paid membership), staking, custody, and infrastructure/API services, and is considered a ‘stable cash flow’ that is less sensitive to market cycles.
• On-chain derivatives (DeFi derivatives): Derivatives such as futures and options that are traded directly through smart contracts on the blockchain without going through a central exchange. DeFi protocols like Hyperliquid are representative examples.
• MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation): A single regulatory framework for the EU’s cryptocurrency markets. Receiving this accreditation will allow you to legally provide services under a unified license in several countries within the EU.
• Everything Exchange (an exchange that trades everything): Coinbase’s mid- to long-term vision is to handle ‘almost all tradable assets and results’ on one platform, including not only cryptocurrencies but also stocks, derivatives, prediction markets, and event contracts.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q.
Coinbase had a large loss in the fourth quarter. Does this mean the company is in danger right now?
Most of the $667 million deficit in the fourth quarter of 2025 is a ‘non-cash valuation loss’ caused by a decrease in the value of investment assets such as Bitcoin, altcoins, and Circle shares. It is not an actual cash outflow, but rather a decrease in the book value of the assets held, so it is far from a short-term liquidity crisis. Coinbase still holds $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, leaving it relatively well-off in terms of operating capital. However, investors should be mindful of the fact that the risk that performance may be greatly affected by cryptocurrency price fluctuations has been reaffirmed.
Q.
Hyperliquid’s trading volume is twice that of Coinbase. Is Coinbase losing out to DeFi?
Hyperliquid is a DeFi platform specializing in on-chain derivatives, and as of the most recent analysis period, its derivative trading volume was $2.6 trillion, approximately twice that of Coinbase ($1.4 trillion). This shows that global liquidity is shifting to a significant extent not only to regulated central exchanges (CEXs) but also to DeFi derivatives. However, Coinbase is a listed company under U.S. regulation and a member of the S&P 500, and has strengths in the institutional and regulatory environment. In summary, DeFi has an advantage in growth and speed, while Coinbase has strengths in regulation friendliness and institutional accessibility. They can be seen as being in ‘different positions’.
Q.
What exactly does the ‘Everything Exchange’ mentioned in the article mean?
Coinbase’s Everything Exchange goes beyond simply buying and selling coins such as Bitcoin, and aims to enable trading of cryptocurrency derivatives, stocks, tokenized assets, and various ‘event contracts (prediction market products)’ through a partnership with Kalshi on one platform. In this way, the profit structure can be more stabilized by being able to earn fees and service profits from various assets and market events rather than relying solely on the price of the cryptocurrency. For investors, it is important to watch how well Coinbase executes its long-term platform strategy rather than its short-term performance.
TP AI Precautions
We summarized articles using a language model based on TokenPost.ai. Key content in the text may be excluded or different from the facts.
date: 2026-02-14 20:44:00