Table of Contents
A new report warns the Colorado River system is dangerously close to a supply crisis, notably as negotiations stall on future operating rules and the Navajo Nation continues its pursuit of long-term water security. The Colorado River Research Group’s report, “Colorado River Insights, 2025 Dancing Wiht Deadpool,” paints a dire picture of the river’s condition, highlighting the potential for a severe shortfall even before new guidelines are established after 2026.
Shrinking Reservoirs and a Looming Crisis
Researchers emphasize that another dry winter could substantially deplete the remaining water reserves in the river’s major reservoirs, Lake Powell and lake Mead. If winter 2025-2026 mirrors the dryness of the previous year, the report estimates that less than 4 million acre-feet of water will be realistically available in these reservoirs between late summer 2026 and the start of spring snowmelt runoff in 2027. https://www.coloradoriverresearchgroup.org/
This isn’t a prediction of a shortage, but a stark warning about the system’s vulnerability. The current “cushion” of water is rapidly disappearing,leaving the Colorado River system increasingly susceptible to a full-blown supply crisis.
This situation is particularly critical for the Navajo Nation, which relies on the Colorado River and its tributaries for water access across Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Nation has been actively working to secure long-term water rights and infrastructure improvements to ensure reliable water supplies for its communities.https://www.navajonationparks.org/water-rights/ A shrinking river supply directly threatens these efforts.
Stalled Negotiations and the Post-2026 Rules
The urgency of the situation is compounded by ongoing deadlock in negotiations between the seven basin states – Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming – and tribal governments over new operating rules for the river. The current guidelines are set to expire after 2026, and a new framework is desperately needed to address the long-term challenges of a warming climate and increasing water demand. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/coloradoriver/index.html
The Bureau of Reclamation, which oversees water management in the western U.S., is actively involved in these negotiations, seeking solutions that balance the needs of all stakeholders. Though, reaching a consensus has proven difficult, with states holding differing priorities and concerns.
Understanding “Deadpool” and Acre-Feet
the report’s title, “Dancing With Deadpool,” refers to a critical level in reservoirs where water can no longer be released downstream due to the outlet being above the water surface. Reaching “deadpool” would have catastrophic consequences for water users throughout the basin.
An “acre-foot” is a unit of volume used to measure water, equivalent to the amount of water that would fill one acre of land to a depth of one foot – approximately 325,851 gallons.
Key Takeaways:
* The Colorado river system is facing a critical water supply crisis.
* Another dry winter could severely deplete reservoir levels.
* The Navajo Nation’s water security is directly threatened.
* Negotiations for post-2026 operating rules are stalled.
* The term “deadpool” refers to a dangerously low reservoir level.
The situation demands immediate attention and collaborative action to avoid a potentially devastating outcome for the millions of people and ecosystems that depend on the Colorado River. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the basin states and tribal governments can forge a path towards a enduring future for this vital water resource.
Get instant access to this story by purchasing one of our many e-edition subscriptions HERE at our Navajo Times store.