Cooling to Drive 13% of Global Electricity Demand by 2035, DNV Forecasts

A Cooling Load Double That of AI and EVs

Air conditioning is projected to consume 13% of global electricity by 2035. This surge, driven by rising incomes, more expansive floor space, and climbing temperatures, represents a demand increase of more than 60% over the next decade. According to the DNV Energy Transition Outlook, the electricity required for space cooling will soon double the combined power needs of electric vehicle charging and artificial intelligence data centers.

The findings arrive ahead of COP31, where cooling will move to the center of the diplomatic agenda. The Third Annual Cooling Ministerial is scheduled for November 16, providing a forum to address the report, titled Burning to cool: COP31 has a cooling challenge.

Explosive Growth in the Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia

Global electricity demand for cooling currently sits at approximately 2,800 TWh. DNV forecasts an 80% increase by 2040, a marked acceleration from the 55% growth observed over the previous 15 years. This expansion is heavily concentrated in emerging economies; the African Eye Report notes that demand is expected to triple in the Indian Subcontinent and quadruple in South East Asia within the next 15 years.

North America sits in stark contrast. Projected growth there is just over 5%, a figure largely attributed to the cooling needs of data centers rather than residential or commercial comfort cooling.

The Emissions Gap in Global Pledges

The rise in cooling demand threatens to erode emissions gains made by cleaning up the global electricity grid. The Global Cooling Pledge, launched at COP28 in 2023, aims to reduce cooling-related emissions by at least 68% from 2022 levels by 2050. However, DNV forecasts that CO₂ emissions from electricity used for space cooling will only decline by approximately 40% by mid-century.

Regional trajectories remain uneven. In North America, grid decarbonization is expected to lower cooling-related emissions. South East Asia faces a steeper challenge: as access to air conditioning expands, emissions are projected to rise initially, only beginning to decline as power generation shifts further toward renewables.

Efficiency Standards as a Policy Lever

Rising incomes remain the primary driver of increased cooling-energy demand between 2025 and 2040. Current improvements in equipment and controls are expected to offset only a small portion of this growth. The Global Cooling Pledge includes a target to improve the global average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50% by 2030, compared to a 2022 baseline. Implementing these ambitions through equipment standards remains the critical hurdle for countries experiencing the fastest demand growth.

Reporting Boundaries Drive Cooling Divergence

The divergence between the Global Cooling Pledge and the DNV analysis stems from their reporting boundaries: the pledge includes hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), whereas the DNV analysis focuses strictly on CO₂ emissions from electricity usage. While the Third Annual Cooling Ministerial on November 16 will feature discussions on the challenge of expanding access to cooling while meeting emissions targets, whether nations will translate ambitions into equipment standards to address rising cooling demand is not yet clear.