Cuban Peso Hits 670 CUP in Informal Market as Devaluation Accelerates

The Cuban peso fell to 670 Cuban pesos (CUP) per U.S. dollar in the informal market on Monday, with analysts predicting further declines amid worsening economic conditions, according to elTOQUE Markets.

What is driving the Cuban peso’s decline?

The informal exchange rate reached 670 CUP per dollar on Monday, with 67% of offers clustered between 670 and 675 CUP, according to elTOQUE Markets’ June 11 intelligence service. The platform’s analysis shows the median rate at 670 CUP, while some transactions approached 710 CUP, indicating expectations of further devaluation.

“The dollar and other currencies will continue rising against the CUP in the short term,” elTOQUE stated. The imbalance between buyers and sellers in the foreign exchange market remains critical, with more Cubans seeking to purchase dollars than sell them. “For the CUP to recover, there would need to be far more sellers than buyers, which is not happening,” the platform explained.

How has the exchange rate evolved recently?

The dollar’s value has surged by 14% since early June, rising from 585 CUP to 670 CUP in 15 days. Key milestones include:

• June 3: 600 CUP
• June 8: 625 CUP
• June 12: 650 CUP
• June 15: 660 CUP
• June 17: 670 CUP

The euro also hit a record 770 CUP, while the freely convertible currency (MLC) surpassed 500 CUP for the first time, rising 70 CUP in a single day.

What economic factors are contributing to the crisis?

Cuba’s currency crisis reflects deepening structural challenges. The country received just 328,608 international tourists between January and April 2024—a 55.8% drop from the same period in 2025. Simultaneously, the nation faces a severe electricity shortfall, with grid deficits exceeding 2,100 megawatts in May.

The peso has lost over 95% of its value against the dollar since 2020, when it traded at around 42 CUP per dollar. Economists warn the trend could accelerate without significant policy changes.

What do experts predict for the future?

Economist Elías Amor cautioned that if current imbalances persist, the dollar could approach 1,000 CUP. “People are constantly pushing the price higher,” he said. “In the coming months, Cuba will see no influx of foreign currency.”

elTOQUE’s June 11 projection estimated the dollar would reach 650 CUP by month’s end, but the rate surpassed that mark three weeks early. Analysts attribute the rapid depreciation to a combination of currency scarcity, declining tourism, and unchecked monetary expansion.

Why does this matter for Cuba’s economy?

The devaluation exacerbates inflation and reduces purchasing power for Cubans. With the MLC now exceeding 500 CUP, the gap between official and informal exchange rates has widened, complicating trade and investment. The government’s 2024 budget, which assumes a stable currency, is increasingly at odds with market realities.

Cuba’s central bank has not provided updated exchange rate guidance, leaving private markets to set terms. This lack of intervention has fueled speculation, with some analysts suggesting the government may eventually intervene to stabilize the CUP.