2026 California Gubernatorial Race: Tom Steyer Leads Democratic Field Amid High Undecided Voter Share

The 2026 California gubernatorial election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive races in recent memory, with environmental activist and billionaire businessman Tom Steyer emerging as the early frontrunner among Democratic candidates. However, with Steyer polling at just 15% and a significant 26% of voters still undecided, political analysts say the race remains wide open as the state prepares to elect a successor to term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom.

Steyer’s Early Lead and the Democratic Field

Tom Steyer, a longtime Democratic donor and climate activist, announced his candidacy for California governor in early 2025, positioning himself as a progressive leader with a focus on environmental policy and economic equity. His campaign has gained traction among voters concerned about climate change, a key issue in a state that has faced record wildfires, droughts, and extreme weather events in recent years.

Despite his early lead, Steyer’s 15% polling support—reported in a March 2026 survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)—leaves ample room for other candidates to gain ground. The same poll found that 26% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided, a figure that underscores the fluidity of the race.

Key Contenders in the Democratic Primary

Steyer faces competition from a crowded field of Democratic candidates, including:

• Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, who has emphasized her experience in state government and her work on housing and economic development.
• Attorney General Rob Bonta, a progressive prosecutor who has focused on criminal justice reform and consumer protections.
• State Treasurer Fiona Ma, who has highlighted her financial expertise and efforts to expand access to capital for small businesses.
• Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a longtime civil rights advocate and former educator who has made voting rights and education reform central to her campaign.

The PPIC poll found that none of these candidates have yet broken into double-digit support, with Kounalakis polling at 12%, Bonta at 9%, Ma at 7%, and Weber at 5%. The remaining 26% of voters are either undecided or supporting other, lesser-known candidates.

Why the Race Remains Wide Open

Several factors contribute to the uncertainty in the 2026 gubernatorial race:

• High Undecided Voter Share: With more than a quarter of likely Democratic primary voters still undecided, the race is far from settled. Analysts note that undecided voters often break late in the campaign, making it difficult to predict the eventual nominee.
• Steyer’s Unconventional Background: While Steyer’s wealth and name recognition have given him an early advantage, his lack of elected experience could become a liability as voters weigh their options. His 2020 presidential campaign, which saw him spend over $250 million without securing a single delegate, has also raised questions about his electoral viability.
• Policy Priorities Shaping the Race: Climate change, housing affordability, and economic recovery are expected to dominate the campaign. Steyer’s focus on climate action resonates with many voters, but his opponents argue that his business background may not align with the needs of working-class Californians.
• Newsom’s Legacy: Governor Gavin Newsom’s popularity has fluctuated in recent years, particularly in the wake of the state’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing challenges like homelessness and wildfires. The next governor will inherit both the successes and struggles of Newsom’s administration, adding another layer of complexity to the race.

What’s Next for the 2026 Election?

The California gubernatorial primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026, with the general election set for November 3, 2026. As the campaign progresses, voters can expect a series of debates, policy rollouts, and high-profile endorsements to shape the race.

For now, political observers are closely watching how the field evolves, particularly as undecided voters start to make their choices. With no clear frontrunner and a wide-open race, the 2026 election could defy expectations and produce a nominee who is not yet on the radar of most Californians.

Key Takeaways

• Tom Steyer leads the Democratic field for California governor with 15% support, but 26% of voters remain undecided, making the race highly competitive.
• Steyer’s opponents include Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis (12%), Attorney General Rob Bonta (9%), State Treasurer Fiona Ma (7%), and Secretary of State Shirley Weber (5%).
• Climate change, housing affordability, and economic recovery are expected to be central issues in the campaign.
• The primary election is set for June 2, 2026, with the general election following on November 3, 2026.

FAQ

Who is Tom Steyer?

Tom Steyer is a billionaire businessman, philanthropist, and environmental activist. He founded the hedge fund Farallon Capital and later established NextGen America, a progressive political action committee focused on climate change and social justice. Steyer ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination in the 2020 presidential election before announcing his candidacy for California governor in 2025.

What are the main issues in the 2026 California gubernatorial race?

The leading issues in the race include climate change, housing affordability, economic recovery, and criminal justice reform. Candidates are also expected to address the state’s response to wildfires, droughts, and the ongoing challenges of homelessness and income inequality.

When is the California gubernatorial primary?

The California gubernatorial primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The general election will take place on November 3, 2026.

Why is the 2026 race considered wide open?

The race is considered wide open due to the high number of undecided voters (26%) and the relatively low polling numbers of the leading candidates. The absence of a dominant frontrunner and the fluidity of voter preferences contribute to the uncertainty.