Did a Crash Support Pogačar Win Milan-San Remo?

Tadej Pogačar’s victory at the 2026 Milan-San Remo was a testament to his resilience and tactical acumen, but a compelling argument suggests the crash he suffered during the race may have inadvertently paved the way for his success. While crashes are typically setbacks, the circumstances of Pogačar’s incident and the subsequent race dynamics raise the question: did misfortune actually contribute to his triumph?

The Crash and the Chase

With 33km remaining, Pogačar crashed while vying for position, sustaining abrasions and tearing his shorts. The incident initially appeared to derail his chances, but he quickly rejoined the peloton with the assistance of teammates Florian Vermeersch and Felix Grossschartner, reaching the base of the Cipressa climb after a 5km chase (Cyclingnews).

A Boost from McNulty and a Shift in Tactics

Brandon McNulty then took control, driving the pace up the Cipressa and through the following kilometers. This aggressive move whittled down the peloton, leaving only Pogačar, Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling), and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) as serious contenders. Pogačar then launched an attack, further reducing the group to these three elite riders.

The Tight Finish and the Question of Fatigue

The trio descended and rode together until the Poggio, where Pogačar pressured Van der Poel and Pidcock. While he couldn’t definitively drop Pidcock, a feat he’s accomplished in previous races, the finish was incredibly close, with Pidcock reporting a margin of just four centimeters (Cyclingnews).

The Argument for the Crash as a Catalyst

Pogačar demonstrated exceptional form on the Cipressa, reportedly surpassing last year’s fastest ascent time by several seconds – estimates range from seven to eleven seconds faster than Van der Poel’s time (Cyclingnews). This raises the possibility that, without the crash, a fresher Pogačar could have established a significant lead on the Cipressa, potentially launching a solo effort to the finish.

The Headwind Factor and the Value of Companions

However, the flat roads after the descent were met with a headwind, a challenging condition for a lone rider. Pogačar acknowledged this post-race, noting it wasn’t ideal for a solo breakaway. The presence of Pidcock and Van der Poel, and the collaborative effort they shared, ultimately proved beneficial, allowing them to maintain a slim lead over the chasing group.

A Solo Ride Might Have Been Recaptured

Had Pogačar been able to ride solo after the Cipressa, he would have faced a determined chase from the teams of Pidcock and Van der Poel. It’s plausible that he could have been caught, altering the race outcome significantly. In that scenario, a less fatigued Pidcock or Van der Poel might have seized the opportunity to attack on the Poggio.

A Fortuitous Turn of Events

While no rider welcomes a crash, the circumstances of Pogačar’s incident arguably contributed to his victory. The crash forced a tactical shift, ensuring he wasn’t isolated against a headwind and benefited from the contributions of his rivals. What initially appeared as a disaster ultimately unlocked a hard-fought win.