US Tariffs Rise to 15%, Impacting Ukraine and Emerging Economies
Washington D.C. – New tariffs imposed by the United States, rising to 15% across the board, are impacting global trade flows, with Ukraine identified as one of the countries facing the largest negative consequences, according to a recent report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The changes stem from a Supreme Court ruling on February 20, 2026, which led the White House to enact a temporary 10% tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, subsequently increased to 15% on February 22, 2026.
Impact on Key Regions and Countries
While the overall change in tariffs is described as “modest,” the new regime has created distinct winners and losers. The EBRD report highlights that the average U.S. Import tariff faced by countries in the EBRD region has increased from 14.6% to 15%, affecting 29 countries.
- Most Affected: Ukraine, Armenia, Egypt, Kenya, and Kosovo are experiencing the largest increases in tariff burdens. For Ukraine, the average tariff on goods entering the U.S. Has risen from 16.6% to 20.3%.
- Beneficiaries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Moldova, and Tunisia are seeing reductions in their tariff burdens.
- Global Winners: Brazil, China, and India are benefiting from the changes, as they previously faced higher tariffs.
- Other Affected: The United Kingdom, Italy, and Singapore are now subject to significantly higher U.S. Import tariffs.
Economic Data and Trade Figures
In 2024, Ukraine exported $874 million worth of goods to the United States, with pig iron ($363 million) and pipes ($112 million) representing the largest categories. U.S. Exports to Ukraine, however, totaled $3.4 billion – nearly four times higher than Ukrainian exports to the U.S. Ukraine supplies over 600 product categories to the U.S. Market, with 65 categories exceeding $1 million in annual exports.
EBRD’s Overall Assessment
Despite the tariff adjustments, the EBRD suggests the economic impact has been “much lower than anticipated.” The bank forecasts economic growth to accelerate to 3.6% in 2026 and further to 3.7% in 2027. The EBRD also notes that the boom in artificial intelligence is driving U.S. Imports of technology-related goods, potentially benefiting Central European, Baltic, Bulgarian, and Romanian exporters of semiconductors and related products.
Looking Ahead
The EBRD cautions that the full impact of the tariffs has yet to be felt, as a significant portion of 2025 exports had already reached U.S. Markets before the measures took effect. The situation remains fluid, and continued monitoring of trade flows and policy adjustments will be crucial in assessing the long-term consequences of these tariffs.
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