Egypt and Indonesia Set to Dominate Global Wheat Imports in 2025/2026
The global wheat market is bracing for a competitive landscape in the 2025/2026 marketing year, as Egypt and Indonesia vie for the position of the world’s largest wheat importer. Both nations are projected to import approximately 13 million tonnes of wheat by the end of June, collectively accounting for nearly 12% of global wheat imports [UkrAgroConsult].
Egypt’s Sustained Demand
Egypt remains a major consumer of wheat, particularly due to its large population – exceeding 108 million people – and its substantial subsidized bread program. This program provides baladi bread to millions of citizens, driving consistently high demand [UkrAgroConsult]. The USDA forecasts a potential record import level for Egypt, potentially reaching 13 million tonnes, building on imports exceeding 12 million tonnes in each of the past two years.
Despite efforts to boost domestic production – with farmers expected to harvest around 9.2 million tonnes in 2025/2026 following government initiatives to expand planted areas and offer attractive purchase prices – Egypt’s local supply will still fall short of its projected consumption of over 20 million tonnes [UkrAgroConsult].
Indonesia’s Growing Reliance on Wheat Imports
Indonesia is too increasing its wheat import needs, driven by the expansion of its food industry and rising consumption of flour-based products [UkrAgroConsult]. The country relies almost entirely on imports for its wheat supply, producing very little domestically. After a slower year where demand dropped and buyers adjusted stocks, imports are expected to rebound to around 13 million tonnes in the upcoming season, fueled by stronger demand from the milling and feed sectors.
Impact on Global Wheat Trade
The combined demand from Egypt and Indonesia is expected to significantly influence global wheat prices and trade flows. Major wheat exporters, including Russia, the European Union, Australia, and the United States, will closely monitor the import patterns of these two key markets [UkrAgroConsult].
Recent data indicates shifts in Egypt’s wheat trade, with 2025 imports reaching 13.2 million tonnes, an 8% decrease from the previous year. This decline was influenced by higher global prices, reaching approximately US$250 per ton, and increased local supply [UkrAgroConsult]. A decrease in demand for fino bread, linked to reduced purchasing power among citizens, and a 15% reduction in government purchases also contributed to the shift. However, Egypt increased its collection of locally produced wheat to approximately 4 million tonnes in the 2025 harvest, an 18% increase from the previous season.
US Trade Mission to Indonesia
The United States is actively working to expand its agricultural exports to Indonesia. In March 2026, U.S. Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg led an agribusiness trade mission to Jakarta, comprising 41 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives from four state departments of agriculture [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service] and [Food Ingredients First]. This mission aims to capitalize on a new trade deal that eliminates import licensing and quota barriers, opening access to a US$67 billion packaged food market in Indonesia [Food Ingredients First]. The mission focuses on market access for dairy, wheat, soybeans, and feed ingredients, with the understanding that Halal certification expansion by October 2026 will present implementation challenges for U.S. Exporters [Food Ingredients First].