“They’re very strong, energetic and they’re very wet,” Jon Gottschalk said of the powerful nor’easters fueled by the developing climate pattern. This winter’s potentially record-setting El Niño is set to shape snowfall and weather across the United States from January through March, according to a CNN Weather analysis. El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, altering atmospheric circulation and shifting the jet stream south across North America.
Jet Stream Shifts Drive Wetter Winters Across Southern States
During past El Niño winters analyzed from 1959 through 2026, snowfall was generally above average across the southern United States. CNN reported that the snow-heavy region stretches from parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies through the southern Plains, southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. Storms affecting the Mid-Atlantic typically track along the spine of the Appalachians or push off the coast to become nor’easters. Gottschalk, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, noted that these storms are juiced by the climate pattern, potentially bringing above-average snowfall to cities like Washington, D.C., and Baltimore.
This year’s potentially record-setting El Niño is expected to shape winter weather and snowfall across the US.A new CNN Weather analysis shows how snowfall has changed during El Niño winters, offering clues as to what to expect this season. https://t.co/JK9wuD4gmu
However, a wetter winter does not automatically mean a snowier one. CNN pointed out that snowstorms require sufficiently cold air, meaning warmer temperatures simply convert increased precipitation into rain. While the South and Mid-Atlantic face heightened chances of wet weather, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and Interior Northeast historically saw less snow during past events.
Super El Niño Strengthens Historical Regional Contrasts
This year’s El Niño is projected to be one of the strongest on record. Gottschalk explained that a stronger event increases the likelihood of its typical atmospheric effects, though it does not necessarily produce a larger localized increase in rain or snow compared to weaker events. CNN noted that above-average snowfall occurred in more than half of the analyzed El Niño winters across parts of the Southwest, lower Midwest, southern Appalachians, and Interior Northeast. Conversely, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies experienced below-average snowfall more frequently than not.
Comparative analysis between moderate and super El Niño events reveals that these regional divides grow starker. Areas that typically see above-average snow during standard events experience even more frequent snowfall during strong phases, while traditionally drier northern zones see snow even less often. NOAA’s winter outlook for December through February favors warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern and eastern United States as the Pacific jet stream floods the continent with milder air.
Single Storms or Arctic Air Can Skew Snow Totals
Despite the prevailing mild outlook, forecasters emphasize that a single massive storm can skew snow totals for an entire season. During the very strong 2015–16 El Niño, New York City recorded one of its warmest winters on record, yet the January 2016 blizzard dropped 27.5 inches in Central Park according to the National Weather Service, setting a single-storm snowfall record.
A major wild card remains the evolution of atmospheric circulation patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic. Gottschalk explained that changes in the Arctic can allow cold air to spill into the eastern United States, altering storm tracks and disrupting the expected mild winter across the north. Because forecasters cannot reliably predict in October when those cold episodes will occur or how long they will last, the timing of freezing air will only become clear closer to individual storm events.
Frequently Asked Questions About El Niño Snowfall Impacts
How does El Niño change winter storm tracks in the United States?
El Niño warms the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which shifts the jet stream south and extends it eastward across North America. This relocated jet stream steers storms across the southern tier of the country and up the East Coast, while leaving northern regions generally drier and milder.
Does a strong El Niño guarantee record snowfall in Washington and Baltimore?
No. While historical data shows that strong El Niño winters favor above-average snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic due to energetic nor’easters, an average is only a historical guide. Storms still require sufficiently cold air to produce snow rather than rain.
What caused New York City’s record snowfall during the warm 2015-16 winter?
New York City experienced one of its warmest winters on record during that cycle, but a brief cold spell coincided with a powerful coastal blizzard in January 2016 that dumped 27.5 inches of snow in Central Park.
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