AccuWeather Forecast Predicts Historic El Niño Will Flip US Winter Snow Patterns
A forecast model released by AccuWeather shows a historic El Niño event will flip traditional US winter weather patterns, bringing heavy snow to the West Coast, Southwest and Central Plains while starving the Northeast and Great Lakes of their usual totals. Meteorologists revealed updated predictions showing 12 states are in line to see more snow than average between late 2026 and April 2027.
Twelve States Face Above-Average Snowfall While Thirty States Turn Warm and Dry
The states slated for more snow than an average winter include California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. Conversely, parts of at least 30 states from the Pacific Northwest across the Great Lakes to New England are predicted to experience warmer and drier air. Cities such as New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Chicago are forecasted to receive less than half the snow that fell 12 months ago.
The primary storm track, particularly in the first part of winter, will be across the southern US and leave many areas in the Plains void of snow,
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said in a statement. The seismic shift stems from an abnormally warm Pacific Ocean, which pushes the jet stream farther south and drives moisture into southern states that rarely see winter accumulation.
Pacific Warming Expected to Surpass Prior Record El Niño Events
AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok stated that the current phenomenon has the potential to be the strongest El Niño on record. The system is projected to surpass the events of 1982-83 and 1997-98, with Pacific temperatures rising by nearly five degrees Fahrenheit. This intense warming alters climate baselines and delivers severe conditions to regions unaccustomed to heavy winter weather.
Las Vegas, Nevada, and Albuquerque, New Mexico, sit squarely in the zone slated for above-average snowfall, marking a stark contrast for a region where Las Vegas hasn’t recorded a major snow event since 2008. Meanwhile, Salt Lake City is projected to receive 50 to 65 inches of snow after recording a record-low 3.7 inches the prior year, and Denver is expected to return to normal with 45 to 55 inches.
Contrasting Winter Impacts Across Eastern and Western Regions
Eastern cities face a dramatic drop in accumulation alongside daily temperatures staying two to four degrees hotter than normal. Boston received nearly 63 inches of snow last winter but is forecasted to log between 15 and 30 inches by April 2027. New York City faces a drop from 43 inches down to a projected 10 to 20 inches, while Buffalo is forecasted to see as little as 55 inches, roughly half the total that falls in a normal winter.
Northern Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin will see temperatures climb more than five degrees higher from December through February 2027, reducing heating demand across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Conversely, the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Gulf Coast—including Las Vegas, Phoenix, Houston, and New Orleans—face uncharacteristically harsh and cold conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions About the 2027 El Niño Winter Forecast
Why is this El Niño predicted to be so powerful?
AccuWeather long-range experts project that Pacific Ocean temperatures will rise by nearly five degrees Fahrenheit, surpassing the intensity of benchmark events recorded in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Which cities are expected to see the most dramatic drop in snow?
Major eastern hubs like Boston, New York City, and Buffalo are forecasted to receive less than half of the snow totals they recorded during the previous winter season.
Could the winter weather patterns shift unexpectedly later in the season?
AccuWeather experts caution that it only takes one major storm to alter the script for East Coast cities, particularly as weather conditions evolve into late January and February.