El Niño Watch: What Wetter, Cooler Weather Could Imply for Texas

After a prolonged La Niña pattern, Texas is now on El Niño watch, with a 62% chance of development this summer. This shift in climate patterns could bring significant changes to the state’s weather, potentially offering relief from drought conditions but also increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding. Here’s a breakdown of what El Niño means for Texas.

Understanding El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña are natural climate phenomena driven by changes in sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when these temperatures become warmer than average, while La Niña brings cooler temperatures. These shifts impact global weather patterns, including those in Texas. When water temperatures are at their long-term average, it’s considered a neutral phase.

How El Niño Impacts Texas Weather

During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream shifts, moving closer to Texas. This typically results in more frequent cold fronts and an increased chance of storms across the southern United States. Specifically, El Niño tends to bring wetter and cooler weather to Texas, particularly during the fall and winter months.

The jet stream acts as a barrier between cooler air from the north and warmer air from the south. When the jet stream dips further south during El Niño, it allows more storms and cold air to penetrate into Texas, potentially leading to increased rainfall and less extreme heat.

Recent History and Drought Conditions

El Niño conditions helped make 2015 the second-wettest year on record in Austin, with 59.96 inches of rainfall measured at Camp Mabry. That year saw devastating flooding, including the deadly Memorial Day floods and significant flooding of Austin’s Onion Creek neighborhood.

Conversely, the recent La Niña pattern contributed to a dry and warm winter. As of March 12, 2026, approximately 82% of Texas is experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions.

What to Expect in the Coming Months

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicates a 62% chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026 and persisting through the end of the year. Even a transition to neutral conditions, or the emergence of El Niño, could be beneficial for a drought-stricken state like Texas. Average rainfall amounts in the spring and summer months could provide much-needed relief.

Current Status of La Niña

As of February 1, 2026, La Niña conditions are ending, with a 75% chance of transitioning to neutral conditions in the next month or two.