Europe’s Shifting Energy Landscape: From Russian Dependence to US Reliance
Europe has undergone a dramatic energy transformation in recent years, spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While successfully reducing its reliance on Russian natural gas, the continent has grow increasingly dependent on the United States for liquefied natural gas (LNG), raising concerns about a new form of geopolitical vulnerability and the potential impact on the EU’s energy transition goals.
The Pivot from Russian Gas
Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, the European Union sourced approximately 50% of its natural gas imports from Russia, primarily via pipelines. Following the invasion in February 2022, Europe swiftly moved to curtail this dependence, achieving a two-thirds reduction in Russian gas consumption within three years.
The Rise of US LNG
This reduction, however, led to a surge in LNG imports from the United States. In 2025, US LNG accounted for roughly 57% of the EU’s total LNG imports – a fourfold increase compared to 2021. The European Commission has extended political, technical, and financial support to its eastern regions to facilitate this transition.
Experts predict this trend will continue, with the US potentially supplying 80% of the EU’s LNG by 2030. This shift is notable as the US only began exporting gas in 2016, previously prioritizing domestic consumption, and has since become the world’s largest LNG exporter.
Threats to Energy Independence and the Green Transition
While natural gas remains a component of the EU’s energy transition, the increasing reliance on US LNG is raising concerns. Analysts argue that this dependence could hinder the EU’s pursuit of energy independence, diversification of supply sources, and acceleration of the energy transition. US LNG is generally more expensive for European buyers than other sources.
Energy expert Ana Maria Jaler-Makarevich notes that European companies continue to sign long-term contracts for US gas, such as a 20-year agreement for supplies through Greek terminals to Southeast Europe and potentially Ukraine.
The US-EU Energy Deal and Geopolitical Implications
In July 2025, the US and EU formalized a trade agreement committing Europe to purchase $750 billion (approximately €629 billion) worth of US energy carriers – LNG, oil, and nuclear energy – annually until 2028. Despite a weakening US commitment to NATO, this agreement is viewed by some as exerting pressure on Europe to increase its purchases of American energy.
Jaler-Makarevic points out that this agreement creates “geopolitical dependence” on US LNG, potentially compromising energy security and hindering efforts to reduce gas consumption. The Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis echoes this concern, stating the deal effectively ties the EU’s energy supply to a single supplier.
Calls for Diversification and a Shift to Renewables
The EU Energy Commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, has emphasized the need for Europe to strengthen its independence and prioritize clean, secure, and locally sourced energy. He recommends diversifying supply by sourcing gas from countries like Canada, Qatar, and Algeria.
Analysts suggest that if the EU remains committed to its transition to clean energy, demand for gas will decrease, potentially rendering existing long-term agreements with the US less relevant.
Civil Society Opposition
More than 120 European and international civil society groups have called for an end to negotiations on the US-EU trade deal, citing concerns about dependence on US fossil fuels and expressing solidarity with those impacted by US foreign policy actions, such as interventions in Venezuela and territorial claims on Greenland.
The future of Europe’s energy supply remains a complex issue, balancing the need for security, affordability, and sustainability. A clear definition of diversification and a strategy that accounts for current geopolitical realities will be crucial for navigating this evolving landscape.