Aviation Turmoil: Gulf Disruptions Force Travelers to Seek Alternatives

Ongoing instability in the Middle East is significantly disrupting global air travel, particularly for routes between Europe and Australia/Novel Zealand. Passengers are facing cancellations, soaring fares, and lengthy reroutings as major airlines curtail operations through key Gulf hubs. The situation is prompting travelers to consider alternative transportation options and airlines to adjust pricing strategies.

The Gulf Hubs’ Critical Role

Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways collectively handle over half of all passengers traveling between Europe and Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands. However, the current climate has drastically reduced their capacity. Etihad is operating at just 15% of its pre-conflict levels, according to Flightradar24 [Source: RTÉ]. Qatar Airways is running a limited schedule with no direct connections between Dublin and Doha. Even as Dubai remains more active, Emirates is currently operating at around 60% of its pre-conflict capacity [Source: RTÉ].

Passenger Experiences and Cost Increases

Dublin native Brian Sullivan experienced the disruption firsthand when his family’s flight home to Melbourne via Abu Dhabi with Etihad was cancelled on March 13th. He stated, “We would’ve been on the plane right now.” [Source: RTÉ]. While Etihad offered a full refund, rebooking options were prohibitively expensive, increasing the cost of the trip from approximately €6,000 to potentially €16,000 [Source: RTÉ]. He expressed reluctance to transit the region, stating, “There’s no way we’re going to get on the plane when there’s rockets flying around in the air in that area. Not a chance.” [Source: RTÉ].

Alternative Routes and Rising Fares

As Gulf routes become less viable, passengers are exploring alternatives. While flights from Dublin to Sydney via Dubai are available on Emirates for around €600 one-way [Source: RTÉ], many remain hesitant to travel through the region due to security concerns. Historically, routes to Australia utilized hubs in Singapore and Bangkok before the rise of the Gulf carriers. Paul Hackett, CEO of Click&Travel and Vice-President of the Irish Travel Agents Association, noted this shift, stating that Australia used to be a two-stop journey via these hubs [Source: RTÉ].

The disruption is too driving up airfares. Airlines are passing increased costs, particularly for jet fuel, onto consumers. KLM has announced long-haul fare increases, while Qantas, Air New Zealand, SAS, and Thai Airways have also implemented price hikes [Source: axadletimes.com]. Jet fuel prices have doubled to approximately $160 a barrel since early March [Source: axadletimes.com].

Hedging Strategies and Airline Resilience

Airlines’ ability to absorb these costs varies depending on their hedging strategies. Hedging involves locking in fuel prices in advance through contracts. European carriers like Air France (62% hedged) and Lufthansa (77% hedged) are better protected than some others [Source: axadletimes.com]. IAG, the owner of Aer Lingus, is 62% hedged for 2026 and currently has no immediate plans to raise prices. Ryanair boasts the strongest hedging position, with 80% of its fuel needs hedged until March 2027 [Source: axadletimes.com].

Impact on Tourism and Future Outlook

The conflict is also impacting tourism in the Middle East, with analysts estimating a potential loss of $56 billion in revenue this year due to 23-38 million fewer visitors [Source: RTÉ]. While the Gulf isn’t a major holiday destination for Irish passengers, Click&Go has cancelled Dubai cruises for the remainder of the month and is rebooking customers. The situation is creating uncertainty for future travel plans, with some passengers considering avoiding the eastern Mediterranean altogether, potentially boosting demand for destinations like Spain, Portugal, and the Canary Islands.