France Cracks Down on Unlicensed Prediction Markets

France’s national gambling regulator, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), is taking a firm stance against unlicensed prediction markets, warning users of their addictive potential and actively blocking access to platforms operating without authorization. This move comes as these markets, exemplified by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, experience significant growth, particularly around major events like the 2024 US presidential election.

The Rise of Prediction Markets and Concerns Over Addiction

Prediction markets allow users to speculate on the outcome of future events, functioning similarly to traditional gambling. The ANJ has expressed concern that these sites share addictive characteristics with online gambling, but lack the protective measures found on legally regulated platforms. “Because these prediction sites present several addictive characteristics similar to those observed for online gambling, but amplified due to the absence of protection mechanisms existing on the legal gambling market, the ANJ calls on users to exercise caution,” the ANJ stated in a press release.

Between January and October 2025, transaction volumes on major global platforms exceeded $27.9 billion (23.7 billion euros), with cumulative revenues estimated at $2 billion (1.70 billion euros), according to the ANJ and a study by Citizens.

Regulatory Actions and International Efforts

The ANJ has requested and received cooperation from internet service providers to geoblock access to these sites from France, preventing users from participating except through the use of VPNs. France is not alone in its efforts. several European countries – including Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine and Portugal – have also blocked access to Polymarket, citing the lack of a required license.

Legal Challenges and US Developments

While Polymarket received authorization from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer betting to American residents in November 2025, it faces legal challenges. The Nevada Gaming Control Board has filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, arguing that its prediction markets constitute illegal gambling and should be subject to blocking measures.

The ANJ’s Role and Future Outlook

The ANJ, established as an independent authority reporting to Parliament , regulates all forms of gambling and betting in France, both online and offline. Its president, Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin, was appointed by decree of the French President for a six-year term. The ANJ’s actions reflect a broader effort to protect consumers and maintain the integrity of the gambling market. As prediction markets continue to evolve, the ANJ will likely play a key role in shaping the regulatory landscape in France and beyond.

Source: Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ)