Futures, not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In Place
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Bitcoin’s recent inability to escape a tight trading range may have less to do with spot Bitcoin ETF flows then many headlines suggest, and more to do with the derivatives complex still doing most of the heavy lifting, even as futures activity cools.
That’s the core argument from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), who said Bitcoin futures volumes have been “cut in half sence November 22,” dropping from $123 billion in daily volume to $63 billion.
The slowdown, he added, “partly explains the low volatility observed on BTC in recent weeks.” But the bigger point is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures still represent “nearly 20 times the volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 10 times spot market volumes ($6B),” according to the analyst.
Simply put, even if ETF outflows are real and visible, they may not be the dominant marginal force setting the tone. “Many continue to point to etfs,wich have experienced meaningful outflows in recent weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While these outflows do contribute to selling pressure, futures markets clearly remain the dominant force in overall volumes.”
Darkfost pointed to net taker volume, a derivatives metric used to infer whether aggressive buying or selling is dominating, as a cleaner read on why price has struggled to trend. He framed it in conditional terms based on prior market behavior: “Each time net taker volume has turned negative, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. When this indicator moves into negative territory, selling volume dominates.”
In his telling, the market has been living with that bias for months. Since July, net taker volume has “generally remained negative,” he said, with one notable interruption: “A noticeable slowdown occurred in early October, allowing Bitcoin to set a new all time high, but selling pressure quickly regained control. Today, selling volumes continue to dominate and have kept Bitcoin trapped in a range for about a month.”
There is, however, a tentative improvement in the same dataset. Darkfost said futures-driven selling pressure has declined since early November, with net taker volume improving from around -$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a positive signal,” but not yet enough to change the regime. “Liquidity remains weak,” he wrote,adding that ETF and spot volumes are “still too limited to allow BTC to break out of its current consol
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders: Are They Really Selling,or just Rebalancing?
Recent market analysis suggests that while long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders (LTHs) are indeed selling,the narrative of a mass exodus may be misleading. The current supply dynamics indicate a potential rebalancing of holdings rather than a complete distribution phase, according to insights from crypto analyst Darkfost. As of today, January 2, 2026, BTC is trading at $87,972.
understanding Long-Term Holders and Supply Dynamics
Long-term holders are typically defined as those who have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more. Their behavior is closely watched as an indicator of market sentiment. A significant increase in LTH selling is often interpreted as a bearish signal, suggesting that even the most committed investors are losing confidence.
However, Darkfost argues that focusing solely on the amount of BTC sold by LTHs doesn’t provide a complete picture. he points out that lths are always selling to some extent, and the key is to analyze this selling activity in relation to the inflow of new BTC into LTH status.
The Rebalancing Viewpoint
Darkfost’s analysis suggests that the amount of BTC maturing and transitioning into LTH status is currently equal to the amount being sold by LTHs. This implies a dynamic equilibrium where selling is being offset by new accumulation. This isn’t necessarily a sign of weakness, but rather a rebalancing of the Bitcoin supply. Short-term holders (STHs) are actively buying the BTC being sold by lths, maintaining overall demand.
This dynamic is crucial because it suggests that the overall distribution of Bitcoin isn’t accelerating. Rather, it’s a process of existing holders taking profits while new investors step in to hold for the long term. This continuous cycle is a healthy sign for the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Current Market Conditions
As of January 2, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $87,972. CoinGecko provides real-time price tracking and historical data.The market has experienced significant volatility in recent months, driven by factors such as macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments. Though, the continued interest from both LTHs and STHs suggests underlying confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Key Takeaways
* LTHs are selling, but not necessarily exiting: While long-term holders are realizing profits, their selling is being offset by new BTC entering LTH status.
* Supply dynamics are key: analyzing the balance between LTH selling and accumulation provides a more nuanced understanding of market trends.
* Rebalancing, not distribution: The current market activity suggests a rebalancing of holdings rather than a widespread sell-off.
* BTC Price: Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,972 (as of January 2, 2026).
Looking Ahead
the behavior of LTHs will continue to be a critical factor in determining Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. Monitoring the supply dynamics and the interplay between LTH and STH activity will be essential for investors navigating the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. Further analysis will be needed to determine if this rebalancing phase will continue or if a more significant distribution event is on the horizon.