Government Cuts Coal and Nickel Production Quotas in 2026 – Stockbit Snips

Daily Market Performance 🚀

IHSG	Foreign Flow	Exchange rate USD/IDR	Gold
8.291,0 +1,96%	-Rp. 526.6 billion	16.783 -0,10%	5.093 +1,23%

Oil	Coal	CPO	Nickel
69,7 +1,30%	116,2 -1,06%	4.060 -0,85%	17.490 +0,81%

👋 Stockbitor!

Director General of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Tri Winarno, say on Tuesday (10/2) that his party would cut total domestic coal production in 2026 to a level above 600 million tonnes. This figure is higher than the previous estimate of cuts at the level of 600 million tons, while actual production in 2025 will reach 790 million tons. Tri explained that the cuts took into account projected domestic industrial demand and PT PLN’s needs. Tri added that Generation I PKP2B permit holders and BUMN IUP permit holders will not experience cuts to production quotas in 2026. Nevertheless, Relevant companies are required to increase the domestic market obligation (DMO) portion to 30% at the beginning of this year, compared to the current DMO obligation at the level of 25%.

Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), Gita Mahyarani, say that one of its members reported cutting production quotas by up to 80% of the total initial proposed RKAB. In general, Gita said that cuts in coal production quotas for 2026 vary in the range of 40-70%. According to Gita, most of the results of the RKAB phase 2 evaluation have been published, but it is still possible to carry it out evaluation back before the RKAB is officially published and the requirements are met.

In separate reporting, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially cut Nickel ore production quota in the 2026 RKAB will be 260–270 million tons29-31% lower than the production quota in the 2025 RKAB of 379 million tons. This step was taken to pushing up nickel prices in the global market which was stagnant in 2025. Previously, the Director General of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Tri Winarno, said on Wednesday (14/1) that the nickel ore production quota in the 2026 RKAB would likely be around 250-260 million tons, which would be adjusted to the smelter capacity.

Bloomberg itself reported that PT Weda Bay Nickel only received a production quota of 12 million tons of nickel ore in 2026, a drastic decrease from the quota of 42 million tons in 2025. PT Weda Bay Nickel is owned by Tsingshan Holding Group Co., Eramet SA, and Aneka Tambang ($ANTM). Bloomberg added that Eramet had confirmed the quota reduction and stated plans to submit a revision.

Key Takeaway

In general, the production quota announced is not much different from the discourse previously circulating. However, the figures set are slightly higher than previously discussed, which we expect reflects upward revision requests from manufacturers.

For information, coal companies which holds generation I PKP2B and has been extended to IUPK includes Adaro Andalan Indonesia ($ GO), Bumi Resources ($EARTH), and Indika Energy ($INDY). Meanwhile, company BUMN with IUP includes Bukit Asam ($PTBA). AADI and BUMI rose +3.9% and +9.7% respectively in trading Wednesday (11/2) while INDY and PTBA fell -0.8% and -1.2% respectively.

On the other hand, the majority of nickel issuers strengthened in trading this Thursday (11/2) with INCO, NCKL and MBMA rising +7.9%, +6% and +6.6% respectively

🌏 Chengdong’s remaining ownership in BUMI is less than 5%

• $EARTH: Based on monthly securities holder registration report data per January 31, 2026, Chengdong Investment Corporation’s direct ownership portion in Bumi Resources fell from 5.76% to 2.81%.
• $SAME: Operator Sarana Meditama Metropolitan, Eagle Mahkota Teknologi ($EMTK), bought ~979.6 million shares of SAME at average prices Rp. 308/share on February 6-9 2026. Total transaction value reached ~Rp. 302 M. After this transactionEMTK’s direct ownership portion in SAME increased from 79.00% to 84.71%.
• $EDGE: Indointernet announce rencana go private and carried out voluntary delisting on Tuesday (10/2). This step was taken based on the consideration that Tight competition in the data center and fiber optic sectors requires faster integration and decision-making — which is difficult to achieve as a public company — as well as limited stock liquidity, making listing status less effective. The company said that the going private and voluntary delisting process would provide a fair and orderly exit opportunity for public shareholders. The price and tender offer schedule have not been announced.
• $BTPS: Bank BTPN Syariah take notes net profit of Rp256 M in 4Q25 (-12% YoY, -15% QoQ). These results make net profit for 2025 reach IDR 1.2 T (+13% YoY), in line with expectations as it equaled 97% of the consensus FY25F estimate. Net profit performance in 4Q25/2025 was supported by a decrease in provision expenses (-2% YoY/-36% YoY). However, PPOP still fell -9% YoY/-10% YoY in 4Q25/2025, along with a decline in Net Margin Income of -3% YoY in both periods. 4Q25 performance was relatively in line with 2025 trends, however quarterly net profit was pressured by increasing non-operating expenses to IDR 52 M in 4Q25 (vs. 3Q25: IDR 859 M). Meanwhile, financing as of December 2025 rose +6% QoQ and +2% YoY, marking the first annual growth since December 2023. For 2026, BTPS targets net profit growth in the high single digit range.
• $MEDC: Medco Energy International announce that its subsidiary, Medco Asia Pacific Limited, has appointed as operator of the Cendramas Production Sharing Contract off the coast of Malaysia by PETRONAStogether with partners DIALOG Resources and EnQuest Petroleum Production Malaysia. This appointment is still subject to the implementation of the PSC, Joint Operating Agreement and other requirements determined by PETRONAS.
• $inru: Toba Pulp Lestari announce has received Minister of Forestry Decree No. 87/2026 dated 26 January 2026 concerning the revocation of Forest Utilization Business Permits (PBPH) in North Sumatra. Responding to this decision, The company has stopped forest utilization activities in the PBPH area and is fulfilling its financial obligations to the government. The Company fully respects and complies with applicable decisions and regulations. Nevertheless, Management believes business continuity will be maintained through strategic mitigationso that financial reports are still prepared using the going concern assumption.
• $NPGF: Main Director of Nusa Palapa Gemilang, Ujang Suparman, say that his party targeting revenue growth of around +20% YoY in 2026. This target is supported by the success of NPGF in secured a contract worth IDR 217 billion from the oil palm plantation segment in early 2026. Ujang explained that the contract value is equivalent to ~97% of the company’s total revenue in 2025.

Top Gainer 🔥

$RAJA	$QUEEN	$PTRO	$HOW
+21,52%	+19,90%	+19,25%	+17,38%

Top Loser 🤕

$CMRY	$INF	$BRIS	$SIDO
-5,65%	-2,90%	-2,04%	-1,87%

🔥 Another hot thing you need to know…

• MSCI announce evaluation for Global Standard, Small Cap and Micro Cap stock indiceswith effective date on February 28, 2026. Previously, at the end of January 2026, MSCI announced implementation temporary treatment for the Indonesian market, which includes freezing the addition of constituents to the MSCI Investable Market Indexes (IMI). Therefore, the evaluation this time is only includes deletions of constituents from indices and downshifts between indices size segment. Here are the details:
  • MSCI Indonesia Global Standard
  • MSCI Indonesia Small Cap
  • MSCI Indonesia Micro Cap
• COO Danantara, Dony Oskaria, say on Tuesday (10/2) that his party did not carry out the acquisition of PT Agincourt Resources (PTAR)United Tractors business entity ($UNTR), related to the issue of revoking the Martabe gold mining business permit. Dony said that PTAR’s legal status was still in process open to appeal. Separately, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, also say that his party has not revoked the PTAR business permit. Currently, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is in the middle conduct a review of recommendations for revocation of permits this, taking into account aspects of job creation and economic growth in mining areas.
• The Indonesian Palm Oil Entrepreneurs Association (GAPKI) told Bloomberg that Indonesia’s CPO production is estimated to increase by +2–3% YoY in 2026, slowing compared to +8% YoY growth in 2025. This slowdown is caused by many plantations are aging, as well as a large portion of immature trees (immature trees). In 2025, CPO production will be recorded at 51.98 million tons, while total palm oil production, including crude palm kernel oil, will reach 56.91 million tons. CPO exports rose +8.7% YoY to 32.12 million tonnes, while domestic consumption increased +3.8% YoY to 24.76 million tonnes due to the B40 biodiesel mandate.
• Bloomberg reported that VinFast has signed a memorandum of understanding with a number of partners in Indonesia, including K3, Citra Abadi Sedaya, PT Bevos Auto Mandiri, and PT Sapta Jaya. This move is part of VinFast’s plans for entering the electric scooter (e-scooter) market in Indonesia. VinFast plans to present a number of existing battery–swapping e–scooter models, as well as various new models that have not yet been launched.

💎 Intrinsic Value and Multibagger Profit Potential

“If you want to make money as a multibagger, you don’t have to just do MSCI2. Tjoe Ay once taught me why a stock goes up and then goes down again, while there are stocks whose rise can be sustainable. The answer is flow.” — Hauw2x

Interesting quotes from the Stockbit community this week

Indonesia has a capital market that is quite dependent on foreign investment. Therefore, assessments from institutions such as MSCI, FTSE, and other global indices have a significant impact on the JCI. In his writing, Stockbitor Hauw2x explained that according to him flow is the key to analyzing the fundamentals of a stock. According to him, a company’s intrinsic value is one of the most important indicators in determining whether its share price will rise or fall. Things that can influence intrinsic value include corporate actions, capital injections, and inorganic acquisitions. Want to read more how Hauw2x explain how to look for multibagger stocks? Read more at here!