Gulf States Grapple with Escalating Iran Conflict and Security Alliances

As fighting in the Middle East enters its third week following the US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February, Gulf states uncover themselves on the frontline of an increasingly intractable conflict. Drone and missile attacks have targeted the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil and gas industries and prompting an exodus of tourists and expatriates.

Dubai’s Precarious Position

Dubai, less than 100 miles from Iran, has experienced a strange juxtaposition of normalcy and conflict, with fighter jets in the sky alongside leisure activities like water skiing. Luxury hotels have develop into unexpected targets for Iranian projectiles, raising questions about the sustainability of the region’s image of peace and luxury. The UAE, like other Gulf states, actively sought to prevent the escalation of the conflict, and did not anticipate becoming a primary target of Iranian attacks.

Economic and Security Implications

The conflict has significantly impacted the region’s economy. Liquefied natural gas production in Qatar remains suspended, and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and gas supplies, is largely impassable due to the threat of Iranian attack. Gulf states are spending billions intercepting missiles and drones, raising concerns about the long-term viability of their security partnerships with the United States.

Growing Questions About US Alliances

The effectiveness of US security guarantees is being questioned. Despite hosting a network of US military bases and roughly 40,000 American troops, Gulf states have experienced attacks without direct US intervention. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have both been attacked, yet the US has not intervened militarily. This is leading to a reevaluation of the benefits and risks associated with hosting US bases.

Humanitarian Concerns and Displacement

The conflict is impacting a diverse population within the UAE. While media coverage has focused on the departure of expatriates and influencers, hundreds of thousands of migrant workers from India and Nepal remain, often unable to afford to leave due to financial constraints or restrictive work contracts. Dubai also serves as a safe haven for refugees from Syria and Afghanistan, who are unlikely to be able to relocate again.

International Reactions and Concerns

The United Kingdom has stated it will not be drawn into a wider war in the Middle East, despite calls from the US for allies to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to secure oil supplies. The UK government has announced £53 million in support for households reliant on heating oil. Belgium’s prime minister has faced criticism for suggesting the normalization of relations with Russia to restore cheaper energy supplies.

Ongoing Developments

As of March 17, 2026, the situation remains volatile. The longer the conflict continues, the more challenging it will be to restore stability and rebuild trust between Gulf states and Iran. A weakened and volatile Iranian regime is considered a worst-case scenario for the region, potentially leading to increased instability and difficulty in future negotiations.

Key Takeaways

• The US-Israeli attack on Iran has escalated regional tensions, drawing Gulf states into the conflict.
• Dubai’s image as a safe haven has been disrupted by attacks, impacting tourism and the economy.
• Gulf states are questioning the effectiveness of their security alliances with the United States.
• The conflict is creating humanitarian concerns for migrant workers and refugees in the region.
• The long-term implications of the conflict depend on the duration and outcome of the fighting.

Sources:

1. The Guardian: Here we are again: inside the 13 March Guardian Weekly
2. Facebook: The war in Iran is diverting international attention away from Ukraine
3. Greenfield Reporter: Iranian drones buzz across the Persian Gulf
4. The Guardian: Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next