Remittances to Africa Threatened as Gulf Tensions Rise

As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Gulf region, millions of African migrants working in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are facing uncertainty, with potential repercussions for remittance flows that are vital to economies across the African continent.

The Lifeline of Remittances

Approximately five million African migrants reside in the GCC – comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – working in sectors such as construction, domestic work, hospitality, logistics, and security. These workers contribute significantly to the economies of their home countries through remittances.

According to United Nations data, over 200 million people in Africa benefit from remittances, which represent almost 6% of the continent’s GDP. In countries like Gambia and Lesotho, remittances exceed 20% of GDP, often surpassing official development assistance (ODA).

In 2024, African countries received over $95.3 billion in remittances, making these transfers one of the continent’s largest external sources of financing. Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco are among the primary recipients, as reported by the African Finance Corporation’s State of Infrastructure in Africa Report 2025.

Impact of the Current Conflict

The recent conflict between Iran and the U.S., along with associated attacks by Israel, has raised concerns among African migrants about their ability to continue earning and sending money home. While remittances have continued to flow so far, facilitated by digital payment services, the possibility of a prolonged war looms.

Market analyst Hany Abu Akleh, from XTB MENA, notes a recent increase in the participation of African workers – particularly from Kenya and Uganda – in Gulf economies, especially the UAE and Qatar. This trend is partly driven by currency depreciation in several African economies and the need to send funds back home amidst rising commodity prices.

Economists emphasize that the primary risk lies in job stability. If the war negatively impacts regional economies, slows down construction projects, or forces companies to reduce costs, migrant workers could be among the first affected.

Data from 2024 and 2025 indicates that remittances from Kenyan workers in the Gulf account for approximately 10% of all funds sent home by Kenyans abroad, totaling around $497 million. Uganda receives approximately $1.6 billion in remittances, largely from its 300,000 workers in the Gulf. Ethiopia sees official remittances from Gulf workers at about $600 million, though the actual amount is likely higher due to incomplete data.

Broader Economic Repercussions

The conflict’s potential to disrupt supply chains, increase fuel costs, and create volatile financial markets is already impacting African economies. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned that the situation is straining African supply chains and driving up energy prices, particularly affecting import-dependent economies. He urged all parties to pursue dialogue as the only sustainable path to ending the conflict.

Kenyan President William Ruto condemned the escalating hostilities, warning that the regionalization of the conflict poses a grave threat to global peace and security, and called for urgent international intervention.

Looking Ahead

While Gulf states, particularly the UAE, possess sufficient liquidity to potentially cushion some disruptions, the long-term impact on remittance flows remains uncertain. The stability of the Gulf economies and the duration of the conflict will be critical factors determining the financial well-being of millions of African families who rely on these vital funds.