India Navigates Shifting Alliances as US Policy on Russian Oil Reverses

Recent Delhi, March 10, 2026 – A complex geopolitical shift is underway as India finds itself once again turning to Russian oil following disruptions in Middle Eastern supplies, even as the United States softens its stance on Indian purchases of Russian crude. This reversal comes after months of pressure from Washington to curtail ties with Moscow, highlighting the delicate balance India maintains between major global powers.

From Pressure to Waivers: A US Policy U-Turn

For much of last year, the United States aimed to diminish Russia’s revenue streams by reducing its customer base, with India being a key target. Under the Trump administration, high tariffs were imposed on Indian exports and sanctions were levied against two of Russia’s largest oil firms as reported by CNN. This strategy initially yielded results, with India decreasing its reliance on Russian oil in favor of supplies from the Middle East.

However, the recent joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for Middle Eastern oil exports. Combined with threats from Iran to target energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, this has sent oil prices soaring, surpassing $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine according to CNN.

In response to India’s predicament, the US granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian oil currently at sea. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the move was intended “to enable oil to keep flowing into the global market” as cited by CNN. This represents a significant shift from the previous White House pressure to halt Russian oil purchases, effectively allowing the proceeds to continue funding the war in Ukraine.

India’s Energy Security and Strategic Autonomy

As Western nations imposed bans on seaborne Russian crude following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia successfully redirected its exports to China, and India. These two populous nations absorbed millions of barrels per day at discounted prices. India, with a population of 1.4 billion and the world’s fastest-growing major economy, defended its purchases as crucial for its energy security as reported by CNN.

The initial pressure from the Trump administration, including 50% tariffs on Indian goods and sanctions on Russian oil firms, did lead to negotiations and a temporary reduction in Russian crude imports. However, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has quickly altered the landscape.

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the Return to Russian Oil

The Strait of Hormuz funnels 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels of India’s daily crude imports, primarily from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates according to data from analytics firm Kpler. With the strait effectively paralyzed, increasing Russian supply appears to be a logical solution.

As of Friday, approximately 130 million barrels of Russian oil were at sea, with some potentially redirected to Indian ports quickly Kpler data indicates. Sumit Ritolia, a research analyst at Kpler, predicts India will likely return to pre-sanctions levels, purchasing around 40-45% of its crude from Russia.

A Temporary Fix with Limitations

Although Russia may not be able to fully compensate for the disruption in Gulf supplies, it now has increased leverage to command higher prices. Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, notes that the 30-day waiver is a “temporary measure” with limitations and a deadline as reported by CNN. Shipments from Russia also capture longer to reach Indian ports compared to those from the Middle East.

India currently holds approximately 25 days of crude oil inventory and 25 days of petrol and diesel inventory, providing a total inventory cover of nearly eight weeks according to a source from India’s oil ministry. New Delhi intends to ramp up supplies from other regions to mitigate the supply crunch from the Strait of Hormuz.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested the possibility of lifting sanctions on further Russian oil supply to ease the global gap as stated in an interview with Fox Business. Analysts warn that prolonged tensions in the Middle East will continue to strain global energy markets and increase the risk of an energy crisis for importing nations like India.