Indonesia Prepares 35 Cloud-Seeding Operations to Counter Potential Early El Niño

Jakarta – The Indonesian government is preparing 35 Weather Modification Operations (OMC), also known as cloud-seeding, this year to mitigate the potential impact of an early El Niño event and anticipate forest and land fires. The initiative involves collaboration between the Ministry of Forestry, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), and the private sector.

Anticipating an Earlier Dry Season

Deputy Minister of Forestry Rohmat Marzuki stated that the preparations are in response to warnings from BMKG regarding a potentially drier and longer dry season in 2026 compared to 2025 . BMKG has also indicated that El Niño, previously forecast for 2027, may occur as early as mid-2026, with a projected intensity ranging from weak to moderate .

Operational Details and Budget

The OMC operations will focus on land rewetting to reduce the risk of forest and land fires. According to Marzuki, the schedule calls for “no fewer than 35 OMC operations this year” . Each operation is expected to last 10–12 days, with two sorties or flights conducted daily .

The budget for each operation is estimated to be between Rp2.3–2.5 billion (approximately US$131,000–US$143,000) . Funding will be a collaborative effort between BNPB and private sector involvement, particularly from holders of Forest Utilization Business Permits (PBPH) .

Targeted Areas

The operations will be carried out across provincial administrative areas, with a particular focus on regions historically prone to forest and land fires. Each operation will target one province, concentrating on districts and cities with a history of large-scale fires .

Regional Dry Season Outlook

BMKG predicts that the 2026 dry season in Sumatra will begin gradually in May, initially affecting northern Aceh, parts of North Sumatra, southeastern Riau, parts of Jambi, central South Sumatra, and Lampung . The dry season is expected to expand to most of Aceh, West Sumatra, Riau, central Jambi, parts of Bengkulu, and South Sumatra by June .