Las general elections of July 23 have been held in the sweetest month of the year for inflation, when the general CPI reached what will foreseeably be the minimum for the year: a year-on-year increase in 1,9%even below the 2% limit used by the ECB to delimit “healthy” inflation.
However, from now on inflation will resume its upward path: it has already risen to 2.3% in July, four tenths more, and the experts from funcas they expect it to continue rising: up to 2.5% in August, 3.5% in September, 4.1% in October, 4.7% in November and, to close the year, 5% in December.
This expected rise in inflation is not due to prices now going to rise too much, but rather to fruit of comparison with the evolution of prices that occurred last year, in which different episodes of ‘step effect’ will have an impact.
This increase in the index in the second half of the year will go hand in hand with a deceleration expected rate of activity and will lead inflation to remain on average around 3.9% in the whole of 2023, compared to the 8.4% registered on average last year.
The underlyingfor his part, will stay encysted around 6% until converging with the general at 5% at the end of the year. The foods they will continue to be the products with the most pronounced rises, which could also be aggravated by the drought situation.