2024-01-20 05:01:00
Interpretation of CBOT positions: Funds increase net long positions in U.S. wheat and corn, waiting for Brazilian bean production data
CBOT soybeans fell for a fifth straight week, as Brazilian crop weather improved and concerns about U.S. export demand, while CBOT corn futures ended higher, but fell for a sixth straight week as large supplies continued to put pressure on the market. CBOT wheat ended higher but fell for a third straight week.
Changes in CBOT positions
According to Huitong Finance Observation, the results estimated by overseas traders show that this Friday (January 19), commodity funds increased speculative net short positions in CBOT soybean oil and soybean meal, increased speculative net long positions in CBOT wheat and corn, and increased CBOT soybeans. Open long positions are the same as open short positions. In the latest 30 trading days, commodity funds increased speculative net short positions in CBOT soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, and wheat.
The data in the table are traders’ estimates and are not final transaction data. Calculation method: The above net position data = open long contracts – open short contracts, that is, if the data is positive, it means “net long position”, if the data is negative, it corresponds to “net short position”, and 0 means open position. Long and open short positions are the same.
Friday’s closing situation
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell for a fifth straight week on improving crop weather in Brazil and worries about U.S. export demand.
CBOT soybean main Sv1 closed down 0.25 cents at $12.1325 per bushel, falling to $12.01 on Thursday, the lowest since November 2021. It fell about 0.9% this week.
CBOT March soymeal futures SMH24 ended $4.80 lower at $356.50 per short ton. March soybean oil futures BOH24 closed down 0.72 cents at 46.90 cents per pound.
The March corn contract CH24 closed up 1.5 cents at $4.4550 per bushel. The contract fell 0.3% this week.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures ended higher on Friday on global export demand and technical buying.
CBOT March wheat WH24 settled 7.75 cents higher at $5.9325 per bushel. It fell about 0.5% this week, its third consecutive weekly decline.
Market Wv1 fell to $5.7325 on Thursday, the lowest price for the most active futures since November 29.
On Friday, KC March hard red winter wheat KWH24 closed up 2.75 cents at $6.08 a bushel, while MGEX March spring wheat MWEH24 was last up 7.5 cents at $6.9550 a bushel.
KC and MGEX wheat rebounded after hitting contract lows on Thursday.
Observation of supply and demand situation
An overview of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as of Friday’s close:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that U.S. wheat export sales in 2023-24 were 707,600 tons in the week ended January 11, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 150,000-500,000 tons.
The soybean market took a breather as traders awaited production data from Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter. Recent rains have eased concerns about drought damage to crops in Brazil, a strong U.S. competitor in global export sales.
Grain traders and analysts say attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region over the past few days have led to a sharp increase in the number of grain cargoes diverted around the Cape of Good Hope rather than through the Suez Canal.
The Kremlin says reviving the Black Sea grains deal is unlikely and that alternative routes for transporting Ukrainian grains pose huge risks.
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