Iran Conflict Rattles Aviation Industry: Should You Book Flights Now?

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is creating turbulence for the aviation industry, leading to flight cancellations and rising jet fuel costs. Travelers planning trips this spring or summer are left wondering whether to book now or wait. Experts advise booking flights sooner rather than later, despite the uncertainty.

Why Book Now?

Generally, it’s recommended to book international flights well in advance. In the current climate, experts suggest extending this practice to domestic flights as well. This advice stems from the broader impact of the Middle East conflict on prices and itineraries, extending beyond the initial flight cancellations.

Airline Warnings and Rising Costs

Airlines are warning of impending ticket price increases due to escalating fuel costs. From February 28 to March 11, 2026, over 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East were canceled, according to CBC News. This includes significant disruptions at major hubs like Dubai International, Doha, and Abu Dhabi.

The price of jet fuel has surged. As of March 10, 2026, a gallon of jet fuel cost $3.40, a more than 60% increase from the $2.11 price at the beginning of the year, as reported by the ABC News Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index.

Strait of Hormuz and Fuel Supply

The spike in fuel prices is linked to disruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway handling approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Prior to the conflict, Mideast refineries were supplying around 470,000 barrels of jet fuel daily through the strait to airports in Europe and elsewhere.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated that airfare price hikes due to higher fuel costs would likely be implemented quickly. Several airlines have publicly confirmed price increases, while others, like Japan Airlines, have fuel surcharge schedules tied to cost increases.

Parallels to Past Disruptions

Experts compare the current situation to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both of which caused flight disruptions and higher fuel prices. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains affected, prices are expected to continue rising.

The U.S. And other nations have agreed to tap into oil reserves, but experts predict this may not lead to a significant drop in jet fuel prices. The U.S. Strategic reserve primarily holds crude oil, not jet fuel, and logistical challenges exist, such as California’s reliance on imported jet fuel.

Tips for Booking Flights Now

• Avoid Basic Economy Tickets: Opt for regular, full-fare economy tickets that allow for changes.
• Consider Airline Miles: Using airline miles offers flexibility, with the option to cancel and reclaim miles if prices decrease.
• Utilize Comparison Tools: Use services like Google Flights to compare prices and set up alerts for changes.
• Review Third-Party Policies: If booking through sites like Expedia, understand their cancellation and change policies.
• Consider Alternative Hubs: If possible, avoid airlines heavily reliant on hubs near the conflict zone for the next few months.

Looking Ahead

The situation remains fluid, and the duration of the disruptions is uncertain. As one expert noted, the aviation industry, like consumers, is reacting to the potential for further price increases. “Prices are always set on the margin,” and the last entity needing fuel will pay whatever it takes, setting the standard for the entire industry.