Potential for Renewed Iran Nuclear Deal Hinges on Guarantees and Trump’s Approach

Despite ongoing tensions, a renewed agreement between the United States and Iran regarding its nuclear program remains achievable, according to former negotiators from both countries. The possibility centers on Iran providing firm guarantees to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, a key point of contention in previous negotiations.

A “Short-Term, Fragile Arrangement” Possible

Robert Malley, who served as the lead U.S. Negotiator on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), suggested a “short-term, fragile arrangement” could be possible. Malley indicated such a deal could offer a “victory” for both sides. The original JCPOA, negotiated under the Obama administration, limited Iran’s uranium enrichment and the number of centrifuges it operated, without completely eliminating the program. Malley is currently on leave pending an investigation into his handling of classified information.

Shifting Dynamics and Potential Leverage

Recent events, including strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the impact of economic sanctions, have weakened Iran’s position. This potentially gives the U.S. Leverage to extract commitments from Tehran to indefinitely suspend enrichment or face further military action. Iran could frame any suspension as a temporary measure necessitated by the current unsafe state of its nuclear program, preserving its right to enrichment in the future.

A Win-Win Scenario?

According to Malley, both the U.S. And Iran could portray a deal as a win. Iran could emphasize that it hasn’t relinquished its right to enrich uranium, while the U.S. Could claim that President Trump achieved a halt to Iranian enrichment – something neither the Obama nor Biden administrations accomplished.

Iran’s Perspective: Survival and Deterrence

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat involved in previous nuclear negotiations, believes current conditions are “exceptionally different” but “more favorable” for a deal. He emphasized that Iran’s current focus is on “survival and the preservation of its territorial integrity and national sovereignty,” and it will not compromise its “defensive deterrence capabilities.”

The Role of President Trump

Malley cautioned that whether President Trump would be open to a deal focused solely on the nuclear issue, or whether he would insist on addressing ballistic missiles, Iran’s regional activities, or domestic policies, remains a critical unknown.