Iran War: Uncertainty for the Gulf States

WASHINGTON—The next phase of the Iran war is defined by uncertainty. Even as the United States and Israel have engaged in strikes against Iran, the potential for further escalation remains, as does the possibility of a lull in attacks or a negotiated deal. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—sit at the center of this uncertainty, facing potential targeting by Iran and bearing the responsibility of navigating the geopolitical landscape that emerges from this conflict.

The Shifting Dynamics of Regional Relationships

Prior to the current conflict, many in Washington viewed GCC countries as key to resolving concerns about Iran without resorting to war. Oman, for example, has historically served as a mediator between the United States and Iran, a role it continued even during the recent crisis. Qatar also maintained channels with Iranian leadership, facilitating negotiations for hostage releases and deconfliction efforts. Saudi Arabia, after years of effort by the United States, China, and other regional countries, had begun to cautiously rehabilitate its relationship with Iran. The UAE maintained long-standing economic ties with Iran, balancing sanctions pressure with potential economic incentives.

However, these dynamics are shifting as the war continues. The United States needs to understand these changes, particularly regarding five key questions that will determine the success of securing its interests in the region and finding an off-ramp to the conflict.

Five Key Questions Shaping the Future

Will the “New Normal” Stick?

Iran has targeted GCC oil and gas infrastructure and commercial interests in an attempt to pressure Gulf states into urging the United States and Israel to cease their strikes. Recent strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Gas Facility demonstrate Iran’s potential to expand the scope of its attacks, inflicting economic pain on Gulf states and the global economy. Experts suggest that global companies and Gulf countries are considering the implications of this “new normal,” even acknowledging that a weakened Iran could still pose a threat to its neighbors.

Will the Houthis Join the Fight?

There is concern that the Houthis in Yemen may enter the conflict, potentially restarting attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This could threaten an additional 12 percent of international seaborne oil transits and 8 percent of global liquefied natural gas trade, adding to the rising costs already impacting shipping companies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and previous Houthi attacks. CNN reports these dangers and associated costs will affect global markets and, most immediately, Saudi Arabia and other GCC member states.

The US military may continue strikes to weaken the Houthis, but Yemen’s instability will likely endure, potentially amplifying instability in the Gulf region.

Will GCC Unity Fracture?

Iran may attempt to fracture GCC unity by exploiting differences in interests and perspectives between Gulf countries. While a “rally around the flag” dynamic has been observed, Iran has historically pursued individual relationships with GCC member states. Iranian leaders likely believe there is value in dividing the group, similar to their approach with the United States and its allies.

The Gulf rift during the Trump administration serves as a reminder of the potential for division. Accusations and tensions led Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain to sever relations with Qatar in 2017.

GCC unity will be crucial in determining how the conflict ends. Differing preferences among Gulf countries—some urging an off-ramp, others advocating for escalated strikes—suggest a worrying trend. The GCC’s ability to maintain a unified voice will affect its ability to support a stable resolution and advance regional goals.

Will Domestic Instability Increase in the Gulf?

While Gulf countries currently project confidence and stability, the longer the conflict persists, the more it could affect their domestic situations. This could lead to responses that are antithetical to US interests and values. Economic opportunities and physical security will be affected, potentially leading to public outcry. Economic duress will disproportionately impact residents and migrant labor populations. Preexisting suspicions towards minority populations could be exploited, potentially leading to unrest and devastating consequences.

Will Gulf States Turn Toward China and Russia?

Gulf countries will likely reinforce their security partnerships with the United States in the short term. However, depending on the conflict’s outcome, some may question US reliability as a partner. If this happens, they might strengthen ties with Russia and China, potentially impacting US interests in the region, including advanced technology, artificial intelligence, and nuclear energy.

Gulf countries have long maintained relationships with various actors to advance their own interests, and they may continue to do so even if it undercuts US goals.

Looking Ahead

Mitigating these potential outcomes will require sustained attention from the United States even after a resolution to the immediate conflict. Finding a resolution that leaves the region more stable than before the launch of Operation Epic Fury is a shared interest of the US and GCC countries. However, the war has opened the door to a new wave of uncertainty in the Gulf, potentially threatening the regional stability and economic prosperity it was meant to ensure.