Erbil Under Fire: Rising Tensions Draw Iraqi Kurdistan into Regional Conflict

Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan Region, has grow a focal point in escalating regional tensions. Recent attacks, including drone strikes and missile launches, highlight the increasing risk of Iraq being drawn into a wider confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. The attacks underscore a shift, turning one of West Asia’s most stable areas into a new front in the ongoing conflict.

Recent Attacks and Escalation

On March 10, 2026, at least 17 drones targeted Erbil, triggering air defense responses and forcing residents to seek shelter. Debris from these attacks landed near the U.S. Consulate and a major public venue. Further attacks on March 16 and 17, 2026, targeted Baghdad, resulting in at least four deaths from an airstrike on a building used by an Iran-backed group, and drone strikes aimed at the U.S. Embassy. A drone strike on the Al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad on March 16, 2026, described by former Iraqi Deputy Minister Hoshyar Zebari as an “all-out war” by Iraqi militias, further escalated the situation.

Multiple Actors and Shifting Dynamics

The attacks originate from various sources, including Iranian missile strikes targeting Kurdish opposition groups in northern Iraq, drone strikes by Iran-aligned militias targeting U.S. Bases, and retaliatory operations linked to the broader confrontation between Tehran and Washington. Since February 28, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated groups have carried out 307 strikes in the Kurdistan Region, resulting in eight deaths and 51 injuries, according to the Community Peacemaker Team-Iraqi Kurdistan (CPT Iraqi Kurdistan).

Targets and Casualties

The attacks have impacted both military and civilian infrastructure. Civilian homes, oil fields, telecommunications infrastructure, hotels, public spaces, and government institutions have all sustained damage. Among those wounded were a delivery driver in Erbil, a nurse near Koya, and a child in Sulaimaniyah. Casualties include a security employee at Erbil International Airport, four Kurdish fighters linked to Iranian opposition groups, and a French soldier killed in a drone strike on a joint military base southwest of Erbil. A joint Peshmerga-French military base at Mala Qara, approximately 60 km southwest of Erbil, was also struck, injuring six others.

Iranian Kurdish Opposition Groups

Northern Iraq has long served as a sanctuary for Iranian Kurdish dissident groups, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, Komala Party of the Toilers of Kurdistan, PAK and Khabat. These groups maintain armed camps, political offices, and refugee camps in the region. In February 2026, six of these groups formed the Alliance of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, a coalition opposing the Iranian government.

U.S. Involvement and Regional Implications

The escalation is drawing U.S. Forces back into confrontation with Iran-backed Shia militias, reminiscent of the post-2003 invasion period. Militias have launched numerous attacks on American targets, including facilities near Erbil International Airport and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. As of March 2026, consulates, military bases, and facilities connected to the U.S. Government in the Kurdistan Region have been targeted 97 times since the start of the conflict.

Political Tensions and Economic Concerns

Tensions are also rising between Erbil and Baghdad over oil exports and financial controls. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has accused the federal government of imposing an “embargo” by restricting access to dollars through the ASYCUDA customs system, impacting oil exports and revenues. Iraq announced plans to begin exporting oil directly from Kirkuk to Turkiye, bypassing the Kurdistan Region. For Iraq, a prolonged conflict risks disrupting oil exports and exacerbating existing political and economic divisions.

International Response

France condemned the drone strike that killed a French soldier as “unacceptable.” U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye and Special Envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, held a telephone conversation with Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, condemning the recent attacks.

As of March 2026, the conflict has seen over 7,000 strikes carried out on Iranian targets by the United States and Israel, with Iran responding with over 2,000 drones and 600 missiles, and beginning to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.