Netanyahu’s Iran War Aim: Regime Change Faces Reality Check

With a new war with Iran in its second week and Israeli political and military leaders counseling patience among Israelis, what the government’s actual war aims are and whether they are attainable remain elusive. While President Donald Trump’s approach to the war has been less defined, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s messaging has consistently focused on regime change in Iran since the conflict began.

“The U.S.-Israeli attack will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people [to] rid themselves of the yoke of tyranny,” Netanyahu declared at the war’s outset. He directly addressed Iranians on X, urging them: “Be ready to seize the moment!”

The Elusive Endgame

Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has been consistent in stating his Iran war aim: regime change. But can he declare victory without it? “An exit strategy needs to be realistic,” cautions one Israeli analyst. “Because if it is not realistic, there is no exit.”

It is unclear whether Netanyahu’s “mission accomplished” requires overthrowing the Islamic Republic or if destabilizing the regime and severely reducing its threat, particularly its nuclear program, would suffice. Even these more limited goals might increasingly conflict with the Trump administration’s timetable for the war, as it focuses on the safe flow of the region’s oil.

Differing Perspectives on Victory

“For Netanyahu, the endgame in this war is to see a heavily diminished Iran,” says retired Col. Miri Eisen, who worked in military intelligence for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). While the prime minister would like to see regime change, she believes he would likely be satisfied with less.

“He wants to see that the physical threat” from Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, and regional proxies “are brought down to an incredibly low level,” Eisen says. “It’s the culmination of what he’s been talking about for many years.”

Retired Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, who heads the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, envisions a future where “the regime in Iran is going to change and to be replaced by a regime that is pro-Western, more or less ready to grant up the ideas of hegemony in the Middle East.” This would entail Iran abandoning its nuclear project, ballistic missiles arsenal, and proxy armies like Hezbollah and Hamas.

However, Kuperwasser acknowledges the gap between aspiration and reality, stating, “After the dreams, comes reality.”

Iran’s Response and Leadership Transition

The Iranian regime shows no signs of bending, having chosen Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father, the slain Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader . There are also concerns that Israel and the U.S. May have underestimated Iran’s response, which continues with round-the-clock ballistic-missile and drone attacks, impacting neighboring Arab nations and driving up oil prices.

Strategic Concerns and Potential Outcomes

Shlomo Brom, a former director of the strategic planning division in the IDF, doesn’t believe the U.S. And Israel have established a realistic strategy to end the war. “An exit strategy needs to be realistic. Because, if it is not realistic, there is no exit,” he says.

Israel and the U.S. Have achieved “enormous” military achievements, but Brom argues that without realistic, achievable goals, the war will “drag on,” until Trump “will be fed up with it.” Regime change could involve completely removing the Islamic leadership or working with a more moderate Islamic replacement willing to meet U.S. And Israeli demands.

Eyal Hulata, a former Israeli national security adviser, suggests focusing on objectives that are easier to “define and also measure,” such as further downgrading Iran’s missile and nuclear programs.

Netanyahu previously declared an “historic victory” after a war in June, but eight months later, announced a new operation to address the same threat. According to Kuperwasser, Iran still possesses 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and has refused to export its stockpiles in prior talks with the U.S.

The IDF spokesperson’s office, through Adi Stoler, states the second phase of the war will focus on eliminating Iran’s remaining nuclear capabilities, depleting its missile arsenal, and assassinating regime officials. “The goal is to make sure that Iran will never pose a threat again to the State of Israel,” she says.

Differing Stakes for the U.S. And Israel

Analysts suggest differing perceptions of victory in the United States and Israel. For Trump, a resolution that allows him to claim victory, or at least argue for it, is sufficient. However, for Netanyahu, seeking to recover politically from the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the stakes are much higher, and anything less than regime change could be seen as a failure by the Israeli public.

Meanwhile, Israelis are seeking assurance that this will be the “last round” to vanquish the existential threat Iran has posed for decades. America will make the final call, and Israel will have to acquiesce, according to Eisen.

“In most of our wars, it takes an outer force to stop us,” she says.