Washington has led the NFL with a 7% explosive-play rate since Jayden Daniels returned in Week 5, according to data reported by pff.com.
That offensive surge sets up a matchup against a Los Angeles Rams defense that has struggled to prevent big gains.
The Commanders have generated much of their power ranking from defense, but Daniels has thrown the ball deep more often with strong results. Meanwhile, the Rams rank in the bottom 10 in explosive plays allowed, passing yards per game, and yards per attempt allowed, as reported by pff.com.
Star edge rusher Myles Garrett appears to be returning for Los Angeles, but pff.com reported it would be surprising to see him in a full-time role. The Rams will also play without Jaylen Watson, their star outside cornerback, while Trent McDuffie missed practice earlier in the week.
No team has forced more coverage mistakes than Washington this year, according to pff.com data. Those injuries and matchups create a favorable environment for Washington to connect on explosive plays downfield.
Jones ranks in the bottom five in EPA per play against perfect coverage, losing an average of 0.5 EPA per play on those dropbacks. Per pff.com, the Dallas unit has similarly compelled opposing passing attacks into a deficit of nearly 0.5 EPA per play whenever they deploy flawless coverage.
As outlined by pff.com, the breakdown highlights Daniels over wagers and Washington-focused wagers versus Los Angeles as strong angles, alongside bets on Jones unders, Colts team total unders, and Dallas alternate spreads.