Should Latvia Dismantle its Russian-gauge Railway Tracks?

Should Latvia dismantle the 1,520 mm wide railway tracks, along which the 7.63 million tons of cargo transported in the first 10 months of this year require the Latvian state to pay an additional 100 million euros for the maintenance of the state company “Latvijas dzelzceļš” (LDz)?

The dismantling of railway tracks from the Latvian border with Russia and Belarus to the Latvian cities of Daugavpils and Rēzekne is advocated by US military expert Kolins Smits,who builds upon concerns previously raised in “Neatkarīga” regarding a potential Western attack.

Smits argues that russia believes the best defense is an attack, and Latvia’s defense should involve destroying the railway tracks to prevent a Russian invasion, mirroring the alleged route used in February 2022 in Ukraine. He claims, “The railway was the only reason why Russia was able to accomplish what it did in the first six months of the war and even after it retreated and concentrated around Donetsk. The only reason why they are able to supply their soldiers today is the use of the railway.So Russia is waging war by rail. If the Baltic states want to prevent an invasion, then eliminate your Russian gauge trains.”

Real Security Comes at a Price

Dismantling the railways would, according to this view, provide a more concrete security measure than relying on tactics like mining the tracks or positioning Latvian army weaponry. This action could allow Latvia to leverage its rails and ports for revenue from permitted cross-border cargo with Russia or Belarus, and possibly benefit from Russian railway cargo service after the war in Ukraine concludes.

However, this approach carries the risk that defensive measures like explosions and ditches might fail during an attack, or inexplicably appear during peacetime. Furthermore, questions arise regarding Latvia’s international obligations and whether they would permit the transport of goods and people on roads designated for potential destruction. Thus, proactively destroying the tracks would offer security, but at a financial cost – foregoing potential revenue and incurring expenses for maintaining the remaining tracks.

Does latvia Need Railway cargo Anymore?

For years, Latvia, along with Lithuania and Estonia, benefited from a unique position where railway maintenance was funded by transit freight service revenues, rather than the state budget. Now, transit cargo volumes have declined to a point where abandoning transit altogether might be more profitable, even if the tracks remain for passenger transport. Freight traffic requires dedicated infrastructure – sorting yards and rail lines – that may be more expensive to maintain than the revenue generated by low-volume freight.

Comparing current figures to the recent past illustrates this decline. The latest data for 2025 (referring to data from 10 months of the year) shows 7.63 million tons of cargo transported. in contrast, 2018 saw a volume of 40.3 million tons – the last relatively strong year for cargo volume.