Australian Public Trust in Global Leadership and Security Sentiment

Recent data from the Lowy Institute’s 2024 annual poll reveals a significant shift in Australian public sentiment, with trust in the United States presidency reaching its lowest level in the survey’s 21-year history. While support for the long-standing Australia-US alliance remains robust, public anxiety regarding regional security, economic stability, and immigration has reached record highs.

Trust in Global Leaders and the US Alliance

According to the 2024 Lowy Institute report, only 21% of Australians express confidence in the current US president to “do the right thing” in world affairs. This figure represents a historic low for the office in the context of the annual survey. Despite this decline in confidence toward the US executive branch, the broader Australia-US alliance maintains 73% public support. This indicates a clear distinction in the Australian electorate between the administration of the day and the enduring strategic partnership between the two nations.

In contrast, trust in other global leaders remains polarized. The survey highlights that Australian perceptions of the US president’s reliability have fallen to levels comparable to sentiments toward the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. Meanwhile, support for the AUKUS security pact—a cornerstone of Australia’s defense strategy—remains stable at 68%, showing that the agreement has maintained consistent public backing since its inception in 2022.

Shifting Perceptions of China and Regional Security

Australians are increasingly concerned about the shifting balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. A majority of 54% of respondents now expect China to eventually surpass the United States as the world’s dominant superpower. This shift in perspective is accompanied by a heightened sense of vulnerability; for the first time in the poll’s history, a majority of Australians (53%) report feeling “unsafe” in the current global environment.

Security concerns are further reflected in defense spending and capability discussions. The Lowy Institute notes that 39% of Australians now favor the development of nuclear weapons, a figure that has trended upward over the last four years. This anxiety is underpinned by concerns over cyberattacks, potential economic downturns, and the prospect of a US-China conflict, all of which are cited by majorities as significant threats to national security.

Domestic Concerns and Immigration

Domestic issues are increasingly influencing Australia’s international outlook. The 2024 poll shows that 55% of Australians believe the country has “too many immigrants,” marking a record high for the survey. While 73% of the population still views cultural diversity as a positive attribute, this represents a 20-percentage-point decline over the past two years, signaling a hardening of public opinion regarding migration policies.

Key Findings at a Glance

• US Alliance Support: 73% (remains robust despite low confidence in the presidency).
• Confidence in US President: 21% (lowest level in 21 years of polling).
• AUKUS Approval: 68% (consistent with long-term trends).
• Sense of Personal Safety: 53% of Australians report feeling unsafe in the world.
• Immigration Sentiment: 55% of respondents state Australia has too many immigrants.

The Future of Defense Planning

The rise in public anxiety has prompted calls for a more proactive defense strategy. Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, suggests that Australia’s “dual skepticism”—a concern regarding the trajectories of both the US and China—reflects the changing military balance in the region. With China’s naval capacity expanding, including the projected development of a significant fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines, experts argue that Australia faces a critical need to adjust its long-term defense planning to address these emerging regional realities.