Middle East Conflict Threatens South Africa’s Economy and Global Markets

JOHANNESBURG, March 7 (Xinhua) – The escalating conflict in the Middle East is poised to have significant consequences for South Africa’s economy and the global market, according to a senior researcher. The crisis, triggered by U.S. And Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, presents a dire threat to energy security and could strain South Africa’s relationship with the United States.

Energy Security at Risk

Na’eem Jeenah of South Africa’s Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection highlighted the immediate impact on energy supplies. Qatar, a leading supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), has halted shipments , and the Strait of Hormuz – a critical waterway for global oil transport – has effectively been closed. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

“this will severely impact all supply chains,” Jeenah stated, noting that many countries reliant on energy imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be affected. The disruption is expected to cause a surge in energy prices, leading to a spike in fuel costs and broader inflation in South Africa.

Impact on South Africa’s Economy

The anticipated increase in energy prices will likely necessitate a reassessment of South Africa’s national budget, as the economic assumptions underpinning it are no longer valid. The government may necessitate to adjust its financial plans to account for the increased cost of energy imports and the potential for broader economic disruption.

Political Ramifications

The crisis is also expected to further complicate South Africa’s relationship with the United States, which has been described as “rocky” since Donald Trump assumed the presidency in January 2025 . The differing geopolitical stances between the two countries could lead to increased tensions and challenges in diplomatic relations.

Global Economic Concerns

Jeenah warned that disruptions to energy supplies could “choke the global economy,” impacting major economic powers, including China and the United States. The interconnected nature of the global economy means that a significant disruption in one region can have cascading effects worldwide.

South Africans Stranded in the Middle East

As of March 4, 2026, more than 6,400 South African citizens had registered their presence in the Middle East with the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) . DIRCO is coordinating evacuation efforts, and Iran has offered assistance if needed . Commercial flights have resumed in some parts of the region, but disruptions continue .

The situation remains volatile, and South Africans in the region are encouraged to seize advantage of available evacuation channels and exercise caution.