Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: First-Round Playoff Preview and Key Storylines

The 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs are set to feature a compelling Eastern Conference first-round matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning. This series pits a young, rebuilding Canadiens squad against a Lightning team aiming to defend its recent championship pedigree. With contrasting roster compositions, coaching philosophies, and playoff experience, the series offers a fascinating study in generational shift within the NHL.

Series Context and Recent History

The Canadiens and Lightning last met in the playoffs during the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, where Tampa Bay defeated Montreal in five games to win its second consecutive title. That series marked Montreal’s first appearance in the Final since 1993 and highlighted the Lightning’s emergence as a modern dynasty under head coach Jon Cooper.

Since then, Montreal has undergone a significant rebuild, trading away veteran assets and focusing on youth development. The 2023–24 season saw the Canadiens finish fifth in the Atlantic Division with a 30–39–13 record, earning 73 points and securing the final playoff spot in the East. Their postseason berth was clinched on the final day of the regular season, reflecting a late-season surge driven by improved goaltending and emerging offensive contributions from young forwards.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, finished second in the Atlantic Division with a 45–29–8 record (98 points). Despite aging core players and salary cap constraints, the Lightning remain a formidable playoff team, buoyed by elite goaltending, structured defensive play, and postseason-tested leadership.

Key Player Matchups

Goaltending: Samuel Montembeault vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy

Montreal’s starting goaltender, Samuel Montembeault, has been instrumental in the Canadiens’ late-season push. The 27-year-old Quebec native posted a 2.68 goals-against average (GAA) and .907 save percentage in 55 appearances during the 2023–24 season, showing marked improvement in consistency and poise. His performance down the stretch earned him the starting role over Jake Allen.

He will face Andrei Vasilevskiy, widely regarded as one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. Vasilevskiy, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner and Conn Smythe Trophy recipient, finished the regular season with a 2.57 GAA and .914 save percentage. His ability to elevate his game in high-leverage situations makes him a formidable obstacle for any opposing offense.

While Vasilevskiy holds the clear edge in experience and accolades, Montembeault’s familiarity with the Lightning’s shooting tendencies—having faced them multiple times this season—could provide Montreal with a competitive advantage if he maintains his recent form.

Offensive Leadership: Nick Suzuki vs. Brayden Point

Nick Suzuki, Montreal’s captain and leading scorer, has evolved into a true two-way center. In 2023–24, Suzuki recorded 26 goals and 48 assists for 74 points, leading the Canadiens in scoring for the second consecutive season. His 58.2% faceoff win percentage and strong defensive awareness make him a pivotal figure in Montreal’s transition game.

Opposing him will be Brayden Point, Tampa Bay’s offensive catalyst. Point finished the season with 38 goals and 49 assists for 87 points, ranking among the NHL’s top scorers. His elite skating, quick release, and ability to thrive in tight spaces make him a constant threat, particularly on the power play.

The Suzuki-Point matchup represents a clash between Montreal’s emerging franchise cornerstone and one of the league’s most dynamic offensive players. How well Montreal can contain Point’s line will significantly influence the series outcome.

Defensive Anchors: David Savard vs. Victor Hedman

On the blue line, Montreal will rely on veteran defenseman David Savard to log heavy minutes against Tampa Bay’s top forwards. Savard, a 33-year-old Stanley Cup champion with the Lightning in 2021, brings physicality, playoff experience, and leadership to a Canadiens blue line that lacks elite offensive upside from its defenders.

He will frequently face Victor Hedman, the Lightning’s Norris Trophy-winning defenseman and arguably the best blueliner in the world. Hedman, 33, recorded 12 goals and 58 assists for 70 points in 2023–24 while logging over 27 minutes per game. His combination of size, skating, and hockey IQ allows him to dominate both ends of the ice.

While Savard’s experience against Hedman from their time together in Tampa may help Montreal’s preparation, containing Hedman’s impact will require a full-team effort, particularly in limiting transition opportunities and neutralizing his point-shot threat.

Coaching and Strategic Adjustments

Montreal is led by first-year head coach Martin St. Louis, a Hockey Hall of Fame inductee and former Lightning star. St. Louis, who played 11 seasons in Tampa Bay and won the Stanley Cup with the franchise in 2004, returned to the organization in 2023 as an assistant before being promoted to head coach following the 2023–24 season. His intimate knowledge of Lightning systems, personnel, and culture provides Montreal with a unique strategic advantage.

St. Louis has emphasized structure, defensive responsibility, and quick transitions—principles that align with the Canadiens’ current roster construction. His ability to motivate a young group and implement tactical adjustments mid-series will be critical.

Jon Cooper, in his 11th season as Lightning head coach, remains one of the most successful coaches in NHL history. Cooper’s adaptability, deep bench management, and success in high-pressure scenarios have been hallmarks of Tampa Bay’s sustained excellence. His experience in seven-consecutive playoff appearances (including three Final appearances and two championships since 2020) gives the Lightning a significant edge in composure and execution.

The St. Louis-Cooper dynamic adds a compelling narrative layer to the series, blending mentorship, familiarity, and competitive rivalry.

Injuries and Roster Considerations

As of the opening game, both teams are relatively healthy. Montreal will have its full lineup available, including Suzuki, Cole Caufield (22 goals, 31 assists), and Kirby Dach, who has provided secondary scoring and versatility in the bottom six.

Tampa Bay is expected to dress its standard 20-man roster, with no major injuries reported among its core players. However, the Lightning will be without longtime defenseman Erik Černák, who is sidelined for the postseason due to a lower-body injury. His absence may increase the workload on Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and rookie defenseman Simon Nemec.

Montreal’s depth scoring will be crucial. While Suzuki and Caufield can carry the offensive load, contributions from players like Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, and rookie Logan Mailloux (if inserted) could provide the secondary scoring needed to challenge Vasilevskiy consistently.

Series Outlook and Prediction

This series represents a classic clash between experience and youth, structure and potential. Tampa Bay holds advantages in goaltending, defensive depth, playoff pedigree, and star power. However, Montreal’s home-ice advantage in Games 1, 2, 5, and 7 (if necessary), combined with St. Louis’ insider knowledge and the Canadiens’ improved defensive play, could make the series more competitive than many expect.

Key factors that could tilt the series in Montreal’s favor include:

• Strong even-strength play limiting Lightning scoring chances
• Effective penalty killing to offset Tampa Bay’s potent power play
• Montembeault matching or exceeding Vasilevskiy’s performance
• Timely scoring from secondary contributors

Conversely, Tampa Bay’s path to victory relies on:

• Hedman and Point dominating matchups against Montreal’s top lines
• Vasilevskiy stealing at least one game on the road
• Depth scoring from players like Ross Colton, Nikita Kucherov (if healthy), and Tanner Jeannot
• Disciplined play to avoid giving Montreal momentum-shifting power-play opportunities

While the Lightning are the clear favorites, the Canadiens have shown resilience and growth throughout the second half of the season. If Montreal can execute its game plan, limit mistakes, and receive elite goaltending, they have the potential to extend the series and possibly pull off an upset.

Regardless of the outcome, this series offers a meaningful measuring stick for Montreal’s rebuild and a chance for St. Louis to begin his head coaching career with a statement performance against the team where he achieved NHL stardom.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does the Canadiens-Lightning series start?

The first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs begins on Saturday, April 20, 2024. Game 1 will be held at the Bell Centre in Montreal.

Where can I watch the Canadiens vs. Lightning games?

In the United States, games will be broadcast on ESPN, TNT, and streamed via Max and ESPN+. In Canada, coverage will be provided by Sportsnet, TVA Sports, and streamed on Sportsnet+ and CBC.

Have the Canadiens and Lightning met in the playoffs before?

Yes. The two teams met in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, where Tampa Bay defeated Montreal in five games to win its second consecutive championship.

Is Martin St. Louis coaching against his former team?

Yes. Martin St. Louis, who played 11 seasons with the Lightning and won the Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay in 2004, is now the head coach of the Montreal Canadiens. This series marks his first playoff appearance as an NHL head coach.

Who is favored to win the series?

Tampa Bay is favored due to its superior roster depth, playoff experience, and elite goaltending. However, Montreal’s home-ice advantage, improved defensive structure, and familiarity with Lightning systems under St. Louis could make the series competitive.