Astronomers are preparing for an event unprecedented in the modern history of lunar exploration. There is talk of a possible collision of a cosmic body with the moon. According to calculations, the impact should be comparable to the explosion of 6.5 megatons of TNT.
Scientists already know exactly where to point their telescopes and sensors, so there is a real chance of capturing the entire course of a potential impact. This would create a crater approximately one kilometer in diameter.
A huge amount of rock would be released from the surface of the Moon, which would be ejected into the surrounding space. Some of the material would remain in lunar orbit, but a large amount could escape toward Earth.
A planetoid from the vicinity of Mars and Jupiter
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Scientists are tracking a body called 2024 YR4, which is an asteroid from the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Scientists estimate its diameter to be more than 60 meters, i.e. similar to the size of a fifteen-story building.
The asteroid was discovered in December 2024, when it was spotted by Chile’s ATLAS network of automatic telescopes. This system specializes in the search for potentially dangerous objects and its task is early warning.
The speed of the asteroid is estimated to be approximately 15 kilometers per second. At its size and speed, it would be able to release energy on impact comparable to a thermonuclear explosion.
Fears of a collision with Earth
After its discovery, the asteroid was briefly considered a possible threat to Earth. But the first calculations worked with a limited amount of data, which led to an estimate of roughly one percent probability of a collision with our planet in December 2032. Even this data was enough for the object to receive a high priority.
With further observation, the collision probability increased to around 3.1 percent. At the time, it was statistically the riskiest known object of its kind. But then scientists obtained data from the James Webb Space Telescope, which made it possible to accurately measure the position and movement of the asteroid. This led to the clear exclusion of the scenario of a direct collision with the Earth.
The moon as a more likely target
According to current calculations, there is a 4.3 percent chance that an asteroid will hit the Moon in December 2032. So this seems like a pretty unlikely scenario, but in planetary science, such a value represents a significant risk worth watching closely.
So scientists are preparing for a collision, also because its contribution to science would be extraordinary. The moon offers ideal conditions for such study. There is no atmosphere or tectonic activity there, so the newly formed crater and surrounding surface damage will remain virtually unchanged for millions of years.
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Wikimedia Commons/Eugene A. Cernan
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An impact on the moon would create a giant crater and eject millions of kilograms of rock into space.
A megaton explosion
Scientists have calculated that the kinetic energy of asteroid 2024 YR4 would be equivalent to approximately 6.5 megatons of TNT upon impact. This far surpasses any impact ever recorded by instruments deployed on the Moon.
Such an impact would cause global seismic waves to spread throughout the Moon. Any modern seismometer would record a clear and long-lasting signal. In addition to the seismic effects, the impact would be accompanied by an optical flash so pronounced that it would be observable even from Earth with smaller telescopes. This would be followed by a long-lasting infrared glow caused by the cooling of the molten rock.
Billions of kilograms of moon rock
Upon impact, up to one hundred million kilograms of rock would be released from the surface of the moon. Some of the mass would gain a velocity greater than 2.4 kilometers per second, thereby overcoming gravity. This ejected material would create a diffuse cloud of particles of various sizes. Some pieces would be several meters in size, others would be just small fragments and dust. Most of this material would move around the Earth and Moon for months to years.
The Earth’s surface would not be in danger because the atmosphere would burn most of the tiny particles. However, they could collide with satellites in orbit. A damaged satellite could create more debris that will only increase the number of objects in orbit. And that increases the risk of further precipitation.
Resources:national-geographic.pl, science.nasa.gov, news.sky.com
date:2026-02-14 04:58:00