MPS & Mediobanca: €3.7bn Profit Forecast & 2026-2030 Industrial Plan

by Marcus Liu - Business Editor
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MPS Approves 2026-2030 Plan, Targeting €700 Million Synergies with Mediobanca

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Spa (MPS) has approved its 2026–2030 Industrial Plan, aiming to become the third-largest banking player in Italy following its integration with Mediobanca. The plan, titled “From deep roots to new frontiers, a leading competitive force in banking,” projects an adjusted net profit of €3.7 billion by 2030 and anticipates distributing approximately €16 billion to shareholders over the plan’s duration. Source

Integration with Mediobanca: A Strategic Leap

The industrial plan centers around the merger by incorporation of Mediobanca into MPS, with expected full-run synergies reaching €700 million. The integration will see the retail activities of Mediobanca merging into MPS, although the corporate & investment banking and private banking divisions will be consolidated into a new, unlisted Mediobanca wholly owned by MPS. Source

Strategic Stake in Generali

MPS will retain its approximately 13% stake in Assicurazioni Generali, viewing it as a strategic asset. CEO Luigi Lovaglio emphasized the stake’s contribution to diversification and stability, acting as a strategic capital reserve and improving profit visibility. Revenues from the Generali stake are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% to €0.8 billion by 2030. Source

Financial Projections and Efficiency Gains

The plan forecasts significant growth in revenues and profitability. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach approximately €3.7 billion, with a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of around 18%. Operational efficiency improvements are targeted to reduce the cost/income ratio to around 38% by the end of the plan. The net interest and fee margin is projected to increase to approximately €9.5 billion in 2030, up from an estimated €7.6 billion in 2025. Source

Divisional Performance Targets

Retail & Commercial Banking is expected to increase its net interest and fee margin to around €2.6 billion in 2030, from approximately €2.1 billion in 2025, with loans rising to approximately €82 billion from €66 billion. Consumer Finance, through Compass, targets revenues of around €1.7 billion in 2030. Source

Key Dates

The Business Plan 2026-2030 was presented on February 27th, 2026. Source The process of full integration of Mediobanca into the Montepaschi Group through merger by incorporation and subsequent delisting was also announced on February 27th, 2026. Source

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