Military Junta Holds Power
Myanmar military rule has endured for more than half a decade because external authoritarian states provide essential support, according to e-ir.org.
General Min Aung Hlaing faces a coalition of armed groups, yet shifting geopolitical changes since 2021 give the junta an upper hand against democratic challengers.
The conflict began after the February 1, 2021 coup, when security forces suppressed the Spring Revolution. Protest movements quickly formed the National Unity Government and allied with ethnic armed organizations to wage a multi-front civil war.
Rebel Forces Gain Territory While the Junta Responds with Airstrikes
During the first two years of the war, rebel forces gained territory. The National Unity Government declared a people’s defensive war in September 2021, pushing the junta back toward urban centers.
The military responded with scorched-earth tactics, including airstrikes and the April 2023 Pazigyi massacre in the Sagaing region, which killed over 160 civilians, e-ir.org reported.
Operation 1027 in October 2023 saw ethnic militias overrun more than 200 military outposts.
The junta recovered by 2024 through general conscription that brought more than 100,000 young men into the military and increased external support. Counter-offensives involving heavy airstrikes and drones subsequently pushed back the People’s Defence Forces.
Russia and Belarus Provide Weapons and Support to the Junta
Russia has emerged as the junta’s primary supporter through a pact that was the culmination of half a decade of substantial support and engagement from Moscow. Moscow has supplied over $400 million in weapons since the coup, including advanced aircraft and drones, alongside training and economic projects.
China and Russia also helped the junta establish a national internet firewall. Meanwhile, Belarus has become a major arms supplier, with President Alexander Lukashenko visiting the country in 2025.
Western States Provide Minimal Military Support to the Opposition
Western states have provided minimal military support to the National Unity Government, leaving the opposition isolated as conflicts continue in Ukraine and the Middle East.
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