NATO Summit Reveals Strains and Shifts in Alliance Dynamics, Says Former Ambassador

Former U.S. The remarks underscored the challenges facing the 32-member military alliance as it navigates a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Iran Tensions and Military Action

Daalder, now a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center, argued that U.S. military strikes against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz were “pretty inevitable” due to irreconcilable differences over maritime access. “The fundamental problem is that we are somehow deluding ourselves that, because we signed a memorandum with Iran, we agree on the fundamentals,” he said. “Iran wants and will insist on having control over who gets access to the strait. And we want freedom of navigation.”

He noted that this conflict has been ongoing since a cease-fire started in April.

NATO Unity Under Strain

Daalder argued that leaders “succeeded” in managing the president of the United States to ensure he wouldn’t withdraw from NATO or undermine it, but stated, “that’s not why you have summits.” He noted that the 32 leaders left Ankara with silence on whether another summit will occur next year. The focus for the next few years is for Europeans to do more and take more responsibility for the defense of Europe, for Canadians to contribute, and to work with the United States in a coordinated manner so the U.S. can reduce its capabilities.

Defense Spending and U.S. Role

While Daalder credited Donald Trump with pressuring Europe to increase defense budgets, he emphasized that the main reason Europeans are increasing spending is the threat that Russia poses. “Russia’s economy is now a war economy,” he said. “And to be even more frank, the other reason Europeans are spending more is because they no longer can rely on the United States. They see the United States as an unreliable, untrustworthy ally.” He added that NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is right to give Mr. Trump credit to ensure he stays within the alliance.

Russia’s Strategic Calculus

Daalder warned that Vladimir Putin may see an opportunity to open up splits among Europeans and between Europe and the United States by taking military actions or actions that threaten the security of NATO countries. He noted that Putin wants to control the future of Ukraine, wants the United States out of Europe, and wants the Europeans to be divided.

Looking Ahead

The coming years will test NATO’s ability to balance U.S. leadership with European autonomy. Daalder suggested the alliance must “get on with the business that everybody agrees on,” including accelerating European defense capabilities. With the next summit still unconfirmed, the focus remains on maintaining unity.