NBA MVP Race 2026: Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, Cunningham, and Wembanyama Lead the Charge

The race for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award is heating up as the regular season nears its conclusion. Although past races have sometimes been decided early, this year’s contest is expected to go down to the wire, with four primary candidates vying for the prestigious honor: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets, Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons, and Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs.

The Top Contenders

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -250

The defending MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander, is currently the betting favorite to repeat. Averaging 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks on 55.4/39/89.2 shooting splits in 49 games as of March 1, 2026, he continues to be a dominant force for the Thunder. ESPN notes his efficiency on offense and his status as one of the league’s top mid-range shooters. The Thunder currently hold a 45-15 record, positioning them atop the Western Conference standings.

Nikola Jokic: +400

Jokic has secured three MVP awards in the last five seasons and has consistently finished near the top of the voting throughout the decade. In 43 games, he’s averaging 28.8 points, a league-leading 12.5 rebounds, 10.4 assists (also league-leading), 1.4 steals, and 0.7 blocks, shooting 57.7/41.3/83 from the field. ESPN highlights his ability to score and create opportunities for teammates, making him a uniquely impactful offensive hub.

Cade Cunningham: +700

Cunningham is experiencing a breakout season with the Detroit Pistons, averaging 25.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1 block on 45.9/33.9/81.2 shooting splits in 51 games. The Pistons have shown significant improvement, and Cunningham’s performance is a key factor in their success. ESPN suggests that, mirroring Derrick Rose’s 2011 MVP win, Cunningham could be favored if Detroit continues its strong performance.

Victor Wembanyama: +2200

Wembanyama is making a significant impact in his rookie season with the San Antonio Spurs, averaging 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1 steal, and 2.8 blocks on 50.1/34.7/81.5 shooting splits in 45 games. His unique skillset and defensive prowess are transforming the Spurs. While his offensive statistics trail the other candidates, his defensive impact is undeniable, contributing to San Antonio’s 43-16 record.

The 65-Game Rule and MVP Eligibility

A new NBA rule implemented in the 2023-24 season could significantly impact the MVP race. Players must appear in at least 65 regular-season games to be eligible for end-of-season awards, including MVP. As of March 1, 2026, several top candidates are nearing the limit of missed games.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Has missed 11 games and can miss only six more to remain eligible.
• Nikola Jokic: Has missed 16 games and can miss only one more to remain eligible.
• Cade Cunningham: Has missed six games and has 11 games remaining before becoming ineligible.
• Victor Wembanyama: Has missed 14 games and can miss three more before becoming ineligible.

Should Gilgeous-Alexander or Jokic miss additional games, Cunningham would likely become the frontrunner, particularly if the Pistons maintain their current success. ESPN reports that betting interest in Cunningham has surged recently.

Recent Developments

On February 28, 2026, Gilgeous-Alexander returned to action after missing nine games with an abdominal strain, scoring 36 points in a win against the Denver Nuggets. Total Pro Sports detailed a heated exchange between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic during the game, with Gilgeous-Alexander throwing the ball at Jokic after a foul. Sports Illustrated reported that NBA officials did not assess a technical foul on Jokic for the initial contact.

Looking Ahead

The NBA MVP race remains wide open. The health and continued success of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, Cunningham, and Wembanyama will be crucial in determining the winner. The 65-game rule adds another layer of complexity, making every game a critical opportunity for these contenders to solidify their cases. While these four are the frontrunners, other players like Luka Doncic, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, and Kawhi Leonard remain in the conversation.