Offensive Adjustments: Analyzing This Season’s Response

If you imagine the development of trends and the constant chess game between offensive developments on the one hand and defensive ideas on the other as a big pendulum, then we have clearly arrived at the defensive side in the swing of that pendulum.

A few years ago, offenses still dictated events. When Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan were relatively new to their jobs, when Patrick Mahomes was taking the league by storm, when Russell Wilson’s deep passes kept the Seahawks competitive.

After the Rams’ 54:51 defeat of the Chiefs in November 2018, there was long and wide discussion about whether that would change the league forever. Would we now enter an era in which every team only looks at the offense and everything else only plays a secondary role at best?

Today we know that things turned out very differently.

That 2018 season already ended with the Rams losing 3:13 in the Super Bowl against the Patriots. A meaningful snapshot in retrospect: the most dangerous offense had been completely thwarted. At the end of the season, which at the time ranked second in the Super Bowl era in average points per team per game, there was the lowest-scoring Super Bowl of all time.

Since 2022, teams have not broken the average of 2.6 touchdowns per game. This mark fell in every year in 2018 (2.68), 2019 (2.6) and 2020 (2.88). Defenses are currently dominating.

This is also shown by the statistics from the season that just ended. In 2025, teams threw the ball less on average per game (32.1 passes per game) than they have since 2006, had the fewest average completions per game (20.6) since 2011 and the second-highest offensive sack rate (6.9%) in the last 20 years.

The yards per catch (10.9) have been stagnating for four years, and here you can see the trend most clearly: Since 2011, passing offenses here have been in a constant downward trend and have developed from 12 yards per catch back then to 10.9.

This leads directly to the explosives, and here we come to the central crux of the matter. In the season that just ended, 13 teams had 50 or more pass plays that gained at least 20 yards. In 2020 there were 15. In 2018 there were 19.

And even more extreme: Eleven teams had ten or more pass plays in 2018 that gained 40 yards. In the 2025 season there were three.

Not a single quarterback with at least 300 dropbacks threw the ball ten yards deep on average last regular season. It was the third year in a row that no quarterback with a correspondingly large sample size was able to break this mark.

Teams scored an average of 2.1 points per drive, the highest since 2020. But that was also because 2025 was the season with the third-best field goal hit rate of all time. In no season have teams attempted more field goals of at least 50 yards per game on average, and only in 2024 did kickers hit an average of more of these long attempts.

Kickers and their sometimes absurd range due to the processed kicking balls could have been a point in themselves here.

Looking at the offense, these are the stats. But anyone who has watched enough games this season – including anyone who has only seen the Super Bowl – will have gotten the feeling at some point that offenses are struggling.

Kyle Shanahan was an analyst on NBC during the Super Bowl, and his analysis of the Seahawks defense sums up the topic perfectly. Not just with the Seahawks in mind, but across the league.

Shanahan explained before the game: “If you can’t run the ball against them, they leave their two safeties very deep. Then they don’t allow explosives. I’ve tried it for two years, you can’t get to the explosives if you can’t run the ball. That’s how you open up the defense and get the safety forward. When that happens, you lean on that and run 40 times. That’s how we beat them in Week 1. We didn’t do that in the other two games, and you have that seen results.”

Those results included a 13-3 loss by the Niners to Seattle in Week 18 and a 41-6 loss in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In both games, San Francisco was almost unable to move the ball at all and had two of its worst offensive games of the entire Shanahan era.

We see this phenomenon across the league. Offenses find it extremely difficult to create big plays in the passing game, but at the same time they cannot reliably compensate for this in the run game.

And in some ways, Shanahan has to blame himself primarily for this.

Because it was Shanahan and McVay’s offenses that were so dominant schematically in the late 2010s. The outside zone run game paired with the deep play-action crossing routes completely dismantled the primary defensive structures that were prevalent at the time.

Defenses had to adapt, and what started in 2018 with Vic Fangio – then the Bears’ defensive coordinator – and then Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl soon evolved. Because more extreme variants soon came into the league under Brandon Staley, among others. Defenses that were very keen to play with two deep safeties and a light box, also to defend the run and take away the offense’s explosiveness in the passing game.

It took a certain period of adjustment. Now, however, defensive coaches like Jesse Minter, whom the Ravens recently made their new head coach, and Mike Macdonald, who just became the first defensive play-calling head coach to win the Super Bowl, are at the forefront of this development.

This season has highlighted that defenses have the upper hand right now. But we also know that offenses have been looking for answers for a long time. And we may have already seen one of them from what was probably the best offense of last season.

The 2018 Rams had a clear identity. Outside zone runs, i.e. horizontal run concepts, which are then combined with a lot of motion and distraction elements, but above all with deep in-breaking routes via play action. That was the challenge defenses had to solve seven years ago.

The 2025 Rams followed on from the 2018 version in one thing. According to “Next Gen Stats”, they are the only two offenses in the last ten years that have had a success rate of over 50 percent when it comes to runs exclusively by running backs.

But now Sean McVay is achieving this efficiency in a completely different way. What in 2018 were his wide zone runs, which were preferred to the outside, is now primarily “duo”. A run concept in which double teams are formed in the middle and then blockers are moved to the second level. Where the Rams wanted to run horizontally in 2018, they now want to run vertically.

According to Sports Info Solutions, the Rams had 113 “duo” runs in the regular season, no other team had more than 77. And other very efficient rushing offenses like the Bills, Packers and Colts also rank in the top 8 of this list. A total of twelve teams had a success rate of 50 percent or more in duo runs.

A remarkable statistic when you consider that over the entire regular season and taking all runs into account, only the Rams had a rushing success rate of over 50 percent (50.1 percent). No other team cracked 47 percent.

You can also see this trend in the roster building. The Rams have built one of the toughest offensive lines in the NFL over the last three years. Gone are the years when Los Angeles primarily sought mobile, agile linemen who could move quickly in space. Mass and power are now trumps.

This tells us something about how McVay read and anticipated trends. Because in the defensive development mentioned, defenses became increasingly lighter, in two respects: lighter in the box – i.e. fewer players who are positioned directly opposite the offensive line because two deep safeties form the basis – and lighter in personnel because five and sometimes six defensive backs became the norm. Seattle perfected that this year.

If we think further along the pendulum of development, then the logical next step in the constant play and counterplay of offensive and defensive trends was that offenses would become more difficult again at some point. This applies to the line, but we are also seeing it more and more with the tight ends. The pure receiving tight ends are having an increasingly difficult time; offenses need players who are real blockers.

The Rams have been thinking along these lines for years. In both position groups. It is no coincidence that only the Rams were able to create such explosive plays in the passing game against the outstanding Seahawks defense. Because they managed to pose a threat in the run game and were able to create vertical one-on-one matchups, especially via play action.

In Week 16 against Seattle, Stafford threw 15 play-action passes for 11.1 yards per pass and two touchdowns. In the championship game there were eleven play-action passes for 20.4 (!) yards per pass and one touchdown.

A heavy line with runs through the middle and a vertical play action passing game combined with it. This could be the future of NFL offenses.

And then we’ll see more offenses this offseason trying to add more bulk. Heavier lines, more physicality at the tight end position and running backs who play strong between the tackles.

This third point is not as directly related to the first two points as these two points are interlinked. But there is a certain connection.

Because while defenses on the second and third level are becoming easier and offenses increasingly want to attack the middle, the value of dominant interior defenders is increasing more and more.

Three of the five defensive tackles with the most quarterback pressure in the regular season among interior defenders were in the two championship games: Denver’s Zach Allen (73), Seattle’s Leonard Williams (58) and Kobie Turner (55) from the Rams.

Byron Murphy (Seahawks/50), Christian Barmore (Patriots/50) and Braden Fiske (Rams/42) also rank within the top 16. Milton Williams only played twelve games in the regular season, otherwise he would also be at the top. Williams led all defensive tackles in the playoffs by a wide margin with 23 pressures; no other interior defender had more than 14.

The Seahawks’ Super Bowl run underscored once again how valuable a deep defensive line rotation is. This is also what the Eagles were able to show last year. But the role of dominant interior defenders is particularly noticeable in both examples. For the Seahawks with Murphy and Williams, for the 2024 Eagles it was Jalen Carter, Milton Williams, Moro Ojomo and Jordan Davis.

The last draft already reflected this. Three defensive tackles, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and Walter Nolen, were selected in the first half of the first round. Just as many as edge defenders. In total there were five interior and five edge defenders in the first round.

For a long time, edge rushers were considered the clear number 1 position for any defense. But the defensive tackles have caught up.

There is a simple argument for the former. 2025 was the ideal season for a team with an elite defense, a well-coached offense and an experienced quarterback to win the title.

Of the seven preseason Super Bowl favorites, only the Bills have won a playoff game. With the Ravens, Chiefs, Lions and Commanders, four of these seven teams didn’t even make the playoffs.

It was a season full of surprises and full of disappointments at the top. This won’t happen often. And then the path to the Super Bowl will become more difficult. This aspect is important to consider if you want to properly assess the Seahawks’ season and success with Darnold.

At the same time, it is also right to point out that this path – i.e. an experienced, once highly drafted quarterback who failed somewhere else and now suddenly works in better circumstances – has been working for several years. Even if Darnold is the precedent when it comes to winning a title. Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill with the Titans a few years ago: There are a few examples of this.

And there could be options for that this offseason, too.

The clear number 1 candidate among the free agents is Malik Willis. Willis was able to recommend himself for more with the Packers last season, but only with a worryingly small sample size. As impressive as his performance was, especially against the Ravens in Week 17, Willis had 47 dropbacks last season. In 2024 there were 71, replacing the injured Jordan Love.

The former third-round pick of the Tennessee Titans has shown clear progress in Green Bay, but how much substance does that have? And what if he starts the season in a worse situation as a starter?

Maybe a trade candidate is more of the answer here. Of all the quarterbacks expected to be available this offseason, Kyler Murray is the most talented. A top tier athlete at the position with a very good arm. Murray doesn’t fit into every scheme, but he would be the one I’d be most likely to have that chance in good circumstances.

Mac Jones would be the other trade candidate. Jones is not on the same athletic level as Murray, but he fits into the Shanahan offense, which he has shown in a larger sample size this year. And this offense is already being played or is currently being installed in many places in the NFL.

Maybe it will be Anthony Richardson too. Or Marcus Mariota. Maybe a team will trade for Spencer Rattler and give him a chance.

None of these names sound incredibly convincing at the moment. But that wasn’t Daniel Jones before this season either. And neither did Sam Darnold two years ago when the Vikings got him. Baker Mayfield had to beat Kyle Trask when he came to Tampa Bay.

None of these quarterbacks could realistically see success coming. That’s exactly the point.