Oil Prices Fall as Trump Signals Imminent End to Iran Conflict

Oil prices retreated from four-year highs on Monday as President Donald Trump indicated the war with Iran was nearing a conclusion, while also considering waiving certain oil sanctions to stabilize global markets. The shift in tone comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns about disruptions to oil supplies.

Trump Administration Considers Sanction Relief and Oil Seizure

President Trump, in a phone call with NBC News, left open the possibility of acquiring Iranian oil, stating, “Certainly people have talked about it,” but added it was “too soon to talk about that.” This echoes discussions surrounding Venezuela, where a U.S. Raid in January led to securing Venezuelan oil reserves. NBC News reported that the U.S. Has already obtained over 80 million barrels of oil from Venezuela.

Simultaneously, the Trump administration announced it would waive “certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices” as the conflict continues to disrupt oil and gas flows. DW.com highlighted this move as a response to soaring oil prices, which had surpassed $100 a barrel over the weekend.

Geopolitical Implications and China’s Role

Taking control of Iranian oil could complicate U.S. Relations with China, which currently receives approximately 80% of Iran’s crude oil exports. NBC News notes China is America’s biggest geopolitical rival and the world’s second-largest economy.

Military Progress and Future Outlook

At a press conference in Doral, Florida, President Trump claimed the U.S. Had hit 5,000 targets in Iran, reducing Iran’s missile capability to 10% and decreasing drone launches by 83%. Fortune reported Trump described the military objectives as “pretty well complete.” He predicted the conflict would resolve “very soon.”

Strait of Hormuz Security

In a related development, the Trump administration is considering having the U.S. Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage. Fortune also reported France is preparing a mission to escort oil and gas shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.

Insurance Program for Oil Tankers

The U.S. Government has also announced a $20 billion insurance program for oil tankers, addressing concerns about the risks of navigating the region. CNBC reported that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill.

Regional Impact

An Iranian attack on Bahrain on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, resulted in one death and multiple injuries, according to Bahrain’s Interior Ministry. DW.com reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for attacks across the region, stating they would not be targeted unless strikes originated from their territory.