Pax Silica: The US Forges an AI Alliance Architecture

The United States is moving beyond traditional cyber diplomacy, directly leveraging control over the elements essential for artificial intelligence – semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and data – to forge a new alliance architecture dubbed “Pax Silica.” This shift marks a departure from relying on intermediaries like banks or oil companies, and instead treats computing power as a core instrument of state policy.

From Market Fiction to Strategic Control

For years, American technological leadership was predicated on the idea that private companies organically dominated key sectors like chips and cloud computing. This allowed Washington to maintain a relatively hands-off approach, simply refereeing the market. But, this “fiction” is being abandoned as the US seeks to actively shape the technological landscape and counter geopolitical rivals. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, during a visit to SpaceX’s Starbase facility in January 2026, emphasized the demand for “technological supremacy” [1], echoing a “wartime” approach to innovation.

The Global AI Diffusion Framework and its Revisions

In January 2025, the Department of Commerce introduced a Global AI Diffusion Framework, aiming to regulate access to advanced chips and related technologies. The framework proposed a tiered system, with close allies enjoying minimal restrictions, most countries facing licensing requirements, and adversaries being largely excluded. However, this plan faced challenges when the Chinese DeepSeek application gained traction, causing a significant drop in Nvidia’s market value [3].

In response, the Department of Commerce repealed the diffusion rule in May 2025, recognizing that traditional regulation couldn’t keep pace with the rapidly evolving ecosystem. This led to a shift towards cartel-like tactics – exemptions, lists, and supply chain controls – to manage access to critical technologies.

Pax Silica: An Alliance for Economic Security

Pax Silica, initiated by the Trump administration, formalizes this approach by bringing together key countries – Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Great Britain, and Australia – in a strategic alliance. The initiative aims to ensure “orderly access to chips, minerals, energy, logistics and infrastructure in the ‘cloud’” [3], effectively defining “peace” as controlled access to these resources.

From Gunboats to Export Controls: The New Cyber Diplomacy

This new form of diplomacy utilizes export controls and cloud jurisdiction in a manner similar to historical tools like gunboat diplomacy and debt collection, but with less public attention. The system aims to reduce the need for local intermediaries, relying instead on licensing, telemetry, and access to essential hardware. The focus is on creating dependency rather than simply promoting exports, as highlighted in a July 2025 executive order promoting American AI technology [3].

Building the Physical Infrastructure: Stargate and Beyond

The physical foundation of Pax Silica is being built on a massive scale, exemplified by the Stargate initiative – a $500 billion AI infrastructure project involving companies like Oracle and SoftBank. Reuters reported on new data centers under the Stargate umbrella, launched with presidential approval [3]. This construction involves nearly 7 gigawatts of planned capacity and over $400 billion in investment over three years.

Challenges and Geopolitical Implications

The demand for power from these data centers is already straining the US power grid, prompting the White House to urge PJM, the largest grid operator, to hold an emergency procurement auction. Countries are now competing for proximity to this new order, with Japan’s SoftBank selling its Nvidia stake to invest in OpenAI and Stargate, and launching the “Crystal Land Project” in Arizona. Europe is pursuing a similar strategy, whereas Gulf states leverage their wealth for privileged access. Latin American nations, like Argentina and Brazil, are positioning themselves as hosts for the material infrastructure – land, energy, and permits – rather than co-authors of the AI tools themselves.

The Role of China and the Future of Pax Silica

China’s response to these developments is crucial. Beijing views dependency as a vulnerability and is willing to act to mitigate it, a stance that contrasts with the approach of other nations. Pax Silica represents an honest expression of a managed peace, maintained through control of supply. Whether this approach will succeed remains to be seen, as the frictions inherent in such a system could ultimately prove to be its weakness.