Projected Shortages in US Pediatrician Workforce: A Growing Concern
The United States is facing a looming shortage of pediatricians, with projections indicating a significant decline in workforce adequacy over the next decade. A recent cross-sectional study analyzing data from the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM) reveals a concerning trend: increasing demand coupled with a decreasing supply of general pediatricians. This article examines the key findings of the study and explores the implications for healthcare access, particularly in vulnerable regions.
Study Findings: Demand Outpacing Supply
Researchers analyzed projections from 2025 to 2037, revealing a 2.0% increase in the national demand for pediatricians, rising from 67,450 to 68,770 full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians. Simultaneously, the supply of pediatricians is projected to decrease by 10.3%, falling from 62,250 to 55,840 FTEs. This disparity is expected to drive a substantial decline in pediatrician workforce adequacy, dropping from 92.3% in 2025 to 81.2% in 2037 (Health Resources &. Services Administration, 2025).
Geographic Disparities: Where the Shortages Will Be Most Acute
The study highlights significant geographic disparities in pediatrician adequacy. By 2037, the South is projected to experience the lowest adequacy rates compared to the Northeast (86.1% vs 110%, P < .001). Non-metropolitan areas are likewise expected to be disproportionately affected, with an adequacy rate of just 52.7% compared to 84.1% in metropolitan areas (P < .001).
Specific states are predicted to face particularly severe shortages. In 2024, Nevada (28.6%), Arkansas (33.3%), Delaware (33.3%), South Dakota (33.3%) and Mississippi (33.3%) exhibited the lowest workforce adequacy. By 2037, this pattern shifts, with Idaho (20.0%), Arkansas (22.2%), Hawaii (25.0%), and Nevada (25.0%) expected to have the most significant shortages (Health Resources & Services Administration, 2025).
Pediatrics Compared to Other Specialties
The analysis also placed general pediatrics in context with other medical specialties. In 2037, general pediatrics is projected to rank 14th out of 21 specialties in terms of physician workforce adequacy, indicating a relatively lower level of preparedness compared to other areas of medicine (Health Resources & Services Administration, 2025).
Implications and Future Directions
The projected decline in pediatrician workforce adequacy raises serious concerns about access to pediatric care, particularly in underserved areas. Addressing this challenge will require proactive strategies to increase the supply of pediatricians, improve retention rates, and optimize the distribution of physicians across the country. Further research is needed to identify effective interventions and policies to mitigate the impending shortages and ensure that all children have access to high-quality healthcare.