John Oliver on Prediction Markets: ‘Betting on War Is Really Dark’
HBO’s John Oliver examined the rapid growth of prediction markets on a recent episode of Last Week Tonight, raising concerns about their lack of regulation and the ethical implications of betting on serious global events. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager on outcomes ranging from weather patterns to geopolitical conflicts, with billions of dollars in weekly bets reported.
Oliver highlighted specific examples that underscored his concerns, including bets on whether Nancy Guthrie’s kidnapper would be arrested by a certain date and wagers on whether traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal by the end of April. He stated plainly, “The impulse to try to make money betting on war or an unfolding tragedy is really dark,” adding that when someone dies, society expects sympathy, not financial gain from their misfortune.
The host noted that whereas prediction markets are not new, their current scale and accessibility represent a significant shift. He attributed much of the recent proliferation to aggressive marketing by Kalshi and Polymarket, the two dominant players in the space. These companies have pursued media partnerships to bolster credibility, including deals with Dow Jones (parent of The Wall Street Journal) and Polymarket, as well as sponsorships with CNN, CNBC, and Fox News through Kalshi. Oliver pointed out that Kalshi even sponsors segments on CNN where its odds appear on-screen during broadcasts.
Oliver as well drew attention to the concentration of winnings on these platforms. He cited an analysis showing that more than two-thirds of all money won on Polymarket was held by just 740 accounts, despite the platform having over two million users. He noted Donald Trump Jr.’s dual role as both an investor in and unpaid advisor to Polymarket and a paid advisor to Kalshi, highlighting potential conflicts of interest.
Regarding regulatory oversight, Oliver contrasted the Biden administration’s attempts to rein in certain market activities with the Trump administration’s approach, which he described as moving “hard in the other direction.” He argued that these companies currently operate under “extremely friendly conditions” and warned that, in many cases, it is “incredibly easy for individuals to manipulate the outcomes.”
As an example of market manipulation, Oliver referenced an incident from the previous summer when individuals threw dildos onto WNBA courts to promote a cryptocurrency meme coin. He noted that Polymarket not only offered bets on whether such incidents would recur but also promoted the wager via tweet—and sure enough, more dildos were thrown afterward.
Oliver concluded that while betting itself is not novel, the normalization of wagering on grim or tragic outcomes marks a troubling cultural shift. “There is something so grim about these sites turning every aspect of our lives into a bet,” he said, urging greater scrutiny and regulation of an industry that, in his view, risks profiting from human suffering.