MLB’s Early Struggles: Can the Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox Recover in 2026?

As the 2026 Major League Baseball season approaches its first quarter mark, three storied franchises—the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Boston Red Sox—locate themselves mired in early-season slumps that threaten their playoff aspirations. With records hovering near the bottom of their respective divisions, questions loom: Which of these teams has the best chance to mount a recovery, and what will it grab to reverse their fortunes?

The Current State of Play

Through late April, the numbers paint a grim picture for all three teams:

• New York Mets (9-19): The Mets have endured a brutal stretch, losing 15 of their last 17 games, including a sweep in a home doubleheader against the Colorado Rockies where they managed just one run. Their offense ranks dead last in runs scored across MLB, and the injury to star shortstop Francisco Lindor—a calf issue expected to sideline him for weeks—only compounds their woes. The team’s run differential (-42) is the worst in baseball, signaling systemic struggles on both sides of the ball.
• Philadelphia Phillies (9-19): The Phillies have mirrored the Mets’ struggles, dropping 11 of their last 12 games to fall to an identical 9-19 record. Despite the long-awaited debut of ace Zack Wheeler, who finally took the mound after a delayed start to the season, Philadelphia snapped a 10-game losing streak only to suffer another defeat. Their run differential (-38) is the second-worst in the league, and they now sit 10.5 games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves in the NL East.
• Boston Red Sox (11-17): Whereas the Red Sox recently took two of three games from the Baltimore Orioles, they remain in last place in the AL East, seven games behind the division-leading New York Yankees. Their run differential (-11) is deceptive, inflated by a single 17-1 blowout win where the Orioles resorted to using a position player to pitch in the ninth inning. Beyond that anomaly, Boston’s pitching and hitting have been inconsistent, and the team’s playoff odds have dwindled to 34%, per FanGraphs.

Playoff Odds: A Glimmer of Hope?

Despite their struggles, advanced metrics suggest these teams aren’t entirely out of the postseason conversation—yet. FanGraphs’ playoff probability models give each team roughly a one-in-three chance of making the playoffs:

• Boston Red Sox: 34%
• Philadelphia Phillies: 33%
• New York Mets: 33%

These numbers reflect the volatility of a 162-game season, where even a prolonged slump in April doesn’t guarantee elimination. However, history shows that teams with records this poor through late April rarely recover in time to salvage their seasons. The next month will be critical; if these teams fail to improve by Memorial Day, their playoff odds could plummet.

Ranking the Recovery Chances

Not all struggles are created equal. Here’s how the three teams stack up in terms of their ability to turn things around:

1. Philadelphia Phillies: The Talent Advantage

The Phillies enter the season with arguably the most talented roster of the three. Their lineup features established stars like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, while their rotation—when healthy—boasts Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suárez. The recent return of Wheeler, who missed the start of the season due to injury, could provide a much-needed spark. However, the team’s bullpen has been a liability, and their defense has been shaky. If Philadelphia can stabilize its pitching and get Harper and Schwarber going at the plate, a recovery is plausible. The NL East is competitive, but the Braves’ early dominance means the Phillies must act rapid.

2. Boston Red Sox: The Wild Card

The Red Sox’s roster is less star-studded than Philadelphia’s, but they have shown flashes of competence, including their recent series win over Baltimore. The firing of manager Alex Cora—who led the team to a World Series title in 2018—adds an element of uncertainty. Cora’s departure could either galvanize the team or further disrupt its chemistry. Boston’s bullpen has been a bright spot, but their starting rotation lacks a true ace, and their offense has been inconsistent. The AL East is a gauntlet, but if the Red Sox can string together wins in May, they could claw their way back into contention.

3. New York Mets: The Uphill Battle

The Mets face the steepest climb of the three. Their offense has been anemic, and the loss of Lindor deprives them of their best all-around player. While the team boasts talented pitchers like Kodai Senga and Luis Severino, their rotation has underperformed, and the bullpen has been unreliable. The NL East is crowded, with the Braves, Marlins, and even the rebuilding Nationals showing early signs of competitiveness. Unless the Mets can quickly address their offensive woes—perhaps through a trade or a call-up from the minors—their recovery prospects look dim.

Key Factors for a Turnaround

For any of these teams to reverse their fortunes, several factors must align:

• Health: Injuries have plagued all three teams. The Phillies and Mets, in particular, need their stars to return and perform at a high level. Lindor’s return timeline for New York and Harper’s consistency for Philadelphia will be pivotal.
• Managerial Stability: The Red Sox are in the midst of a managerial transition, which could either motivate the team or create further instability. The Phillies and Mets, meanwhile, have retained their managers (Rob Thomson and Carlos Mendoza, respectively), but patience in their respective markets is wearing thin.
• Trade Deadline Moves: If these teams remain in contention by July, expect front offices to explore trades to address weaknesses. The Phillies, with their deep farm system, are best positioned to develop a splash, while the Mets and Red Sox may need to get creative with their limited resources.
• Division Dynamics: The Braves’ early dominance in the NL East makes the Phillies’ path to recovery more difficult, while the Yankees’ strong start in the AL East puts pressure on the Red Sox. A collapse by either division leader could open the door for a resurgence.

What’s Next?

The next four weeks will be decisive for these franchises. If they can stabilize their pitching, get key players healthy, and string together a few wins, their playoff odds could improve dramatically. However, if the slumps continue, expect front offices to pivot toward rebuilding mode, with trades and roster overhauls becoming inevitable.

For now, the Phillies appear to have the best chance of mounting a recovery, thanks to their talent and depth. The Red Sox are a wild card, with their fate tied to how quickly they can adapt to life without Cora. The Mets, meanwhile, face the longest odds, but in baseball, stranger things have happened.

Key Takeaways

• The Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox are all off to disappointing starts in 2026, with records near the bottom of their divisions.
• FanGraphs gives each team roughly a 33-34% chance of making the playoffs, but their odds could plummet if they don’t improve by Memorial Day.
• The Phillies have the most talent and the best chance to recover, while the Mets face the steepest climb due to injuries and offensive struggles.
• Health, managerial stability, and trade deadline moves will be critical factors in determining whether these teams can turn their seasons around.
• The next month is make-or-break; if the slumps continue, expect front offices to shift toward rebuilding.

FAQ

Why are the Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox struggling so much?

The Phillies and Mets have been hampered by injuries to key players (e.g., Francisco Lindor for the Mets, Zack Wheeler for the Phillies) and poor offensive production. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have struggled with inconsistency in their starting rotation and a lack of clutch hitting. All three teams have similarly faced tough early-season schedules, which has exacerbated their struggles.

How likely are these teams to make the playoffs?

As of late April, FanGraphs gives each team a roughly 33-34% chance of making the playoffs. These odds are low but not insurmountable, especially if the teams can improve their performance in May. However, history suggests that teams with records this poor through late April rarely recover in time to salvage their seasons.

What needs to change for these teams to improve?

Several factors could help these teams turn things around:

• Health: Getting injured stars like Lindor and Wheeler back on the field will be critical.
• Managerial Stability: The Red Sox are navigating a managerial change, while the Phillies and Mets must hope their current managers can right the ship.
• Trade Deadline Moves: If the teams remain in contention by July, expect front offices to explore trades to address weaknesses.
• Division Dynamics: A collapse by division leaders like the Braves or Yankees could open the door for a resurgence.

Could any of these teams fire their manager?

The Red Sox have already fired Alex Cora, and while the Phillies and Mets have retained their managers (Rob Thomson and Carlos Mendoza, respectively), their jobs may not be secure if the teams continue to struggle. Managerial changes are often seen as a way to shake up a team, but they can also create further instability.

What’s the outlook for the rest of the season?

The next four weeks will be decisive. If the Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox can stabilize their pitching, get key players healthy, and string together wins, their playoff odds could improve. However, if the slumps continue, expect front offices to pivot toward rebuilding, with trades and roster overhauls becoming likely.