Global Recycling Rates Decline Despite Industry Growth

Eight years after the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) declared the first Global Recycling Day on March 18, 2018, and proclaimed recycled materials as the “seventh resource,” global circularity rates are falling. While the recycling industry has expanded, material consumption is outpacing recycling efforts, hindering progress towards a circular economy.

The Declining Circularity Rate

In 2018, the global circularity rate – the proportion of materials consumed that approach from recycling – stood at 9.1 percent. As of 2024, this rate has decreased to 6.9 percent [1]. Less than seven out of every hundred tons of material consumed globally originates from recycled sources. The remaining 93% relies on fresh raw materials.

Growth in Recycling vs. Material Consumption

Despite a 25% increase in membership for the BIR, now boasting over 1,000 members in 72 countries [2], and strengthened regulations within the European Union – including the Single-use Plastic Directive, Circular Economy Action Plan, battery regulation, and new waste shipment regulation – the circularity rate continues to decline. The EU Packaging Regulation (PPWR) came into force in February 2025, prescribing recyclate quotas and recyclability standards. However, material consumption is growing at a faster rate than recycling capacity.

Global material consumption currently reaches 106 billion tonnes per year, exceeding the capacity of current recycling infrastructure. This situation is likened to attempting to drain a bathtub faster than water is being poured in.

The Plastic Recycling Challenge

In 2018, a study cited by the BIR indicated that 91% of all plastic ever produced had not been recycled. Eight years later, the global plastic recycling rate remains at nine percent, unchanged [1]. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a best-case scenario recycling rate of 17% by 2060, while plastic production is projected to almost triple by the same year.

Regional Variations and Limitations

Germany leads the EU in municipal waste recycling, achieving a rate of 69 percent, exceeding all EU recycling targets for 2025, 2030, and 2035. However, this figure pertains only to municipal waste, not total material consumption or industrial waste. “recycled” does not always equate to “reused,” as a significant portion of recycled materials are incinerated.

Global waste generation has risen to 2.12 billion tonnes since 2018 and is projected to reach 3.8 billion tonnes by 2050, an 80% increase [1].

The Limits of Recycling

The BIR’s 2018 recommendations – strengthening international agreements, promoting sustainable trade, and advancing design for recycling – have largely been incorporated into EU regulations. However, the initial promise of recycling as a complete solution was overly ambitious. The Circularity Gap Report 2025 estimates that even if all technically recyclable materials were actually recycled, the global circularity rate would only reach a maximum of 25 percent.

A significant portion of material consumption, including concrete, fuel, and food, cannot be eliminated through recycling alone. Reducing consumption, extending product lifecycles, and adopting alternative business models are crucial complementary strategies.

The Value of Recycling and the Appetite for Raw Materials

The recycling industry currently saves over 700 million tonnes of CO₂ annually and provides employment for 1.6 million people worldwide. Recycled materials currently cover 40 percent of global raw material demand. However, as total consumption continues to increase, this share is diminishing, even as the absolute amount of recycled materials grows.

The core issue isn’t the existence of the “seventh resource,” but rather humanity’s appetite for the first six – water, air, oil, natural gas, coal, and minerals.