US-Armenia Nuclear Deal Signals Shift in South Caucasus Power Dynamics
Washington and Yerevan have solidified a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, marking a significant expansion of US influence in a region traditionally dominated by Russia. The deal, signed on February 9, 2026, promises substantial investment and a potential reshaping of Armenia’s energy landscape, while likewise raising concerns from Moscow.
A New Chapter in US-Armenia Relations
US Vice President JD Vance and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan formalized the agreement in Yerevan, with the US pledging up to $9 billion in potential investment . This move comes as Armenia seeks to diversify its alliances and reduce its reliance on Russia, historically its primary security and energy partner.
The agreement, a 123 Agreement, allows the US to legally license nuclear technology and equipment to Armenia, opening the door for the construction of small modular reactors (SMRs). Vance stated the deal could facilitate up to $5 billion in initial US exports to Armenia, alongside an additional $4 billion in long-term fuel and maintenance contracts .
Russia Voices Concerns
Moscow has expressed reservations about the US plan, citing safety concerns related to Armenia’s seismic activity. Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, highlighted the resilience of the existing Armenian nuclear power plant, built using Soviet technology, to a major earthquake in 1988 . He suggested that the US plan necessitates consideration of new nuclear safety risks for Armenia and the wider region.
US Expansion in the South Caucasus
Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan signals a broader US strategy to increase its influence in the South Caucasus, a region Russia considers its traditional sphere of influence . The US is employing a combination of diplomatic and economic incentives to achieve this goal, offering trade and investment opportunities to both nations .
This push follows Washington’s brokering of a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia in recent months, further demonstrating a proactive US role in the region .
Looking Ahead
The US-Armenia nuclear agreement represents a significant geopolitical shift in the South Caucasus. As Armenia continues to reorient its foreign policy, the deepening partnership with the United States is likely to reshape the regional balance of power and potentially challenge Russia’s long-held dominance.